Theoretical physicist warns that human civilization may reach a point of no return to collapse within 20 to 40 years, what is the cause?
In a paper published in Nature Scientific Reports, a scientific journal in the field of natural sciences, two theoretical physicists said, 'If deforestation continues at this pace, it will be impossible to maintain the population on the earth Is issued.'
Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis | Scientific Reports
Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Several Decades
The paper was written by Professor Mauro Bologna of the Department of Electronic Engineering, University of Tarapaca, Chile, and Dr. Gerald Aquino of Alan Turing Institute .
The existence of forests is indispensable for humankind to live on earth. However, forests that used to be 60 million square kilometers have been reduced to less than 40 million square kilometers. The amount of forest lost between 2000 and 2012 is 2.3 million square kilometers, and if forests were lost at the same pace, all forests would disappear in 100 to 200 years.
It is impossible for human society to be affected from the moment the last remaining tree is cut down, and human society will be affected even earlier.
According to the paper, the current situation is very similar to the case of deforestation on Easter Island known as the 'Moai Statue'. When modeled and calculated, statistically the 'probability of humanity to survive without facing catastrophic collapse' is extremely low, and whether the population will eventually stabilize at a low population due to rapid population decline, Or it is expected to reach complete extinction. The 'point of no return' is expected to come within 20 to 40 years.
It is believed that unprecedented level of technological development is necessary to survive while maintaining civilization. Dr. Aquino said, “Upgrading the technical level will lead to an increase in population and deforestation, but also to the effective use of resources. It may be possible to come up with a solution to avoid or prevent further ecosystem destruction. And as a last chance, we can rebuild civilizations outside the globe.'
However, although the paper assumes that the pace of deforestation is maintained, the pace of deforestation has actually slowed down due to deforestation control and afforestation, and the population growth rate has been increasing since the mid-21st century. The worst scenario doesn't appear to come, as it is expected to fall.
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