Pointing out that the recession will reduce the death toll rather than increase it
Many countries have adopted strategies to increase social distance as a countermeasure against the novel coronavirus infectious disease (COVID-19), and forced urban blockades have also been implemented in Europe and elsewhere. On the other hand, saying that 'distance from social activity stagnates economic activity and causes recession, resulting in more people dying than COVID-19', and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 increases Some claim that even if they do, their social activities should be restored. In response to this claim, foreign media Ars Technica points out that 'recession may reduce deaths rather than increase them.'
How does economic collapse alter the mortality rate? | Ars Technica
There is debate in countries around the world whether the damage to the economy caused by urban blockades and the resulting lives saved are balanced. According to an analysis conducted by an American research team, 'the profit of about 560 trillion yen will be calculated if the cost effectiveness of economic damage and saved lives due to social distance is calculated' It was.
Researchers argue that it will be about 560 trillion yen in profit when calculating the cost-effectiveness of economic damage and saved lives of measures that take social distance-GIGAZINE
A 1918 pandemic case of the ' Spanish Cold ' indicates that 'proactive efforts to limit the activities of society and citizens will lead to higher economic growth after deregulation.' I am. If the economy is not prioritized and a social distance strategy is not taken, the economy may be seriously damaged.
Studies show that the stronger the pandemic measures, the stronger the economy can recover, and the plague measures and the economy are not a trade-off-GIGAZINE
On the other hand, it has been pointed out that it is not only infectious diseases that drive people to death, but recession also causes loss of life. The British Times published a report claiming that the economic crisis resulting from a long-term urban blockade could kill more lives than COVID-19.
A paper (PDF file) written by engineer Philip Thomas in a non-peer-reviewed journal called Nanotechnology Perceptions is based on the finding that ' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) correlates with life expectancy'. . Based on this correlation, Mr. Thomas assumed that 'GDP influences life expectancy' and thought that 'a decrease in GDP would cause a decrease in life expectancy,' and calculated the life lost from the recession caused by the city blockade. It is said that there is.
'This assumption has its own flaws, but it's not backed up by real data,' Ars Technica said in a Thomas paper. Economists have long tried to understand the effects of the economic crisis on human life, but some unexpected results have been drawn. 'Undoubtedly society and the economy are very complex, the consequences of an economic crisis are complex and awkward, and it depends on the situation. But on average, a downturn seems to lead to a reduction in death toll. Ars Technica argues and presents the report published in the journal Nature in 2019.
The consequences of a recession reducing deaths may be counterintuitive. However, the report points out that the number of cars on the road will decrease due to the recession, which will reduce the number of deaths from road accidents, and that air quality will improve due to the decrease in cars. Air pollution is a public health crisis, and air purification due to the recession is expected to reduce the number of deaths due to some diseases such as respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases.
In addition, the lack of work will reduce fatalities in the workplace, and more leisure time will reduce work-related stress and increase the amount of exercise and cooking at home. On average, as wages decline, alcohol and tobacco consumption also decline, suggesting that a recession may have many health benefits for people.
Of course, the impact of the recession is not only on the positive side. Stress increases due to unemployment and wage declines worsens mental health, more people take unreasonable alcohol to dispel stress, and medical expenses make it difficult to access medical institutions. It also causes the negative effects of. It
The consequences of a recession are not trivial: in some respects it benefits people's health and reduces mortality, in others it hurts people's lives and increases mortality. However, while it is certain that some people will have a big downturn in their lives due to the recession, a historical analysis suggests that the recession will result in lower overall mortality.
While there is a strong belief that recessions averagely reduce mortality, it has also been suggested that the impact may vary from country to country. A study that analyzed the impact of the global recession from the late 2000s to the early 2010s on the mortality of EU countries showed a recession in countries like Bulgaria, where social safety nets are low. The average reduction in mortality and the increase in suicide rates have been significant and countries such as Germany with a strong social safety net have been shown to be less affected by the recession. 'Spending on social protection seems to help smooth the healthy reaction to the recession,' said the research team.
Ars Technica pointed out that the recession's changes in mortality are surprisingly complex, it's hard to find causal relationships, and there are multiple ways to reach a conclusion. On the other hand, he cannot say with certainty that a recession will lead to loss of human life, and he said that measures against a pandemic would be 'life and economic damage saved by a city blockade' and 'recession.' Argued that it should not be viewed as a dilemma of 'Life lost by and life lost by COVID-19'.
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