Jan 31, 2020 12:30:00

How fast is the new coronavirus spreading? What is the spread of infection in the future?

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The new coronavirus, which WHO has announced in an emergency, is spreading various information through the power of the Internet and SNS, including the spread of hoaxes . The already published report reports on how the new coronavirus's infectivity is seen and what the future infection spread will be, including the meaning and background of numbers, Live Science of science news media .

How far could the new coronavirus spread? | Live Science
https://www.livescience.com/how-far-will-coronavirus-spread.html

The question of how widespread an infectious disease can be is not easily answered because various factors are intertwined, such as the time and period of transmission at the individual level and the time the virus can survive outside the host. . On the other hand, according to estimates calculated by Peking University from the number of infected people in five cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, the peak of infection is expected to be around the end of April 2020 to the beginning of May 2020 . The report, published on January 27, 2020, shows that 150,000 cases can be reported daily during peak times, given the traffic between Wuhan and Chongqing.

China coronavirus: Hong Kong medical experts call for 'draconian' measures in city as research estimates there are already 44,000 cases in Wuhan | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047813/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call

However, this figure is `` overly pessimistic because it only considers the closure of Wuhan and does not take into account other health interventions, '' said Gabriel Leon, a clinician at Hong Kong University Medical School. Points out. In fact, the report estimates that by February 2, the number of infected people will exceed 50,000, but the number of infected people as of January 31 was 8236. The real-time epidemic status of the new coronavirus can be checked from the map 'Coronavirus 2020-nCoV'.

A map `` Coronavirus 2020-nCoV '' that shows at a glance the momentum of the new coronavirus that spreads infection-gigazine

The ability of a pathogen to spread depends on the ease with which a host can move on to the next host, in other words, 'infectivity.' Infectivity is calculated based on the number of basic reproductions (R0). R0 values for polio, smallpox, rubella, etc. are about 5-7. This means that the pathogen can transmit from one sick person to five to seven people who are not resistant to the virus. Measles is known as the most infectious disease on earth, with an R0 value of 12-18.

Scientists have estimated the R0 value of the new coronavirus `` 2019-nCoV '', and according to a report released on January 26, `` 2-3 '', WHO `` 1.4-2.5 '', but Some researchers show figures between 3.6 and 4.0.

It should be noted that this number indicates the “infectivity” of the pathogen, not the “rate of spread”. R0 is also the 'average number' of the pathogen transmitting from one individual to another, and several so-called 'superspreaders' can cause many infections at once.

And early in the outbreak, too little data makes it difficult for scientists to map infection patterns accurately. Speaking of 2019-nCoV, cases where the disease is identified are biased toward serious symptoms, and it is possible that the understanding of the virus may be biased. In addition, R0 values vary from place to place, depending on where the infected person comes into close contact with others and on defense measures. In addition, the already announced R0 value is unique to Chongqing where the outbreak occurred.

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The R0 estimates for 2019-nCoV are being updated by researchers. Infected cases have been reported beyond China, but efforts are being made in each country to quarantine and isolate travelers from China. WHO announced the emergency declaration on January 31, 2020, but said 'it is not necessary to carelessly restrict trade with China.' With health authorities and scientists working on the vaccine, it is expected that the vaccine will be developed over a period of several months, and until then it has been recommended to reduce the risk of infection by preventing such things as hand washing.