What is the 'bad event that hits humanity in the 2020s' as seen from the past 5000 years?
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A new discipline that explores human existence in a very long time frame, from the Big Bang to the present, is called Big History . David Baker , a big history researcher, summarizes the events that will take place in the 2020s, derived from an analysis of the countries and civilizations that have risen repeatedly during the past 5000 years.
History repeats itself.That's bad news for the 2020s
https://theconversation.com/history-repeats-itself-thats-bad-news-for-the-2020s-127116
◆ Prosperity and decline cycle
Baker's research on big history uses cryodynamics (history dynamics) , which analyzes the social forces that make up human society and analyzes history scientifically. By using cryodynamics, it is possible to model the 'cycle of prosperity and decline' of civilization experienced by humans in the past.
A good example of the 'cycle of prosperity and decline' is ancient Rome. Ancient Rome began its growth and prosperity period around 201 BC when the Second Poeni War ended, but initially the gap between rich and poor and the number of elites were small. However, as the population of ancient Rome grows over time, more and more peasants are forced to relinquish land, and farmland is concentrated on plantations run by elites with many slaves. Thus, the gap between rich and poor in ancient Roman societies grew increasingly widespread, with large-scale civil wars and slave revolts occurring frequently.
In ancient Rome, which had undergone a long war, the ancient Romans will once again be prosperous when Augustus pirates Rome around 30 B.C. and ends the republic and at the same time becomes the first emperor himself.
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◆ Great Acceleration and Elite Growth
According to Baker, there are two signs that human society has been bad in recent years. One of them is 'the end of the era of growth experienced by the previous generation.' Since around 1945, humankind has grown at an unprecedented rate, and the increase in human activity, such as explosive population growth and accelerated economic growth, is called `` Great Acceleration '' Is. However, Mr Baker said, `` In recent years, there has been stagnation in wage rise, widening inequality, and power struggle by wealthy elites, '' said a growing human race facing a wall. Suggested.
Another bad sign is 'elite growth'. Mr. Baker points out that, `` If you look back at history, an excessive increase in the elite will often lead to an era of economic and environmental crisis, followed by a period of sociopolitical instability and violence. '' did.
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◆ Division era and 'trigger event'
Baker also points out that the 2020s are an ever-divided era. For example, in the United States and Australia, political rulings continue to be severely opposed by the ruling and opposition parties, but also 'political polarization by Brazilian President Jail Mesias Bolsonaro ', ' grassroots parliamentarians in India and the Indian People's Party' There is no shortage of divisions and conflicts among people, such as violent conflicts and China with many conflicts.
According to Baker, the period of decline in these situations can last for decades, but the 'trigger event', a turning point in things, can make the situation worse at once. For example, in the 12th century Europe, rising living standards and population growth were seen, but two subsequent triggering events, the great famine and the plague pandemic, have entered a very volatile era. did.
According to Baker's prediction model, 20% of the world's population will die in the 'depression phase' that comes after the trigger event. The United Nations estimates that the global population in 2019 will be approximately 7.7 billion, which will cost about 1.5 billion people.
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◆ Technical breakthrough
Given that “prosperity and decline” have occurred many times, a dark future seems inevitable, but there are also events that can stop the cycle. That is 'technical breakthrough '. For example, in Europe in the mid-11th century, the development of new land development techniques and agriculture has dramatically increased productivity and formed a prosperous soil in the 12th century.
The breakthrough in the 21st century could be, for example, nuclear fusion technology that can supply a large amount of inexpensive clean energy. However, Baker says fusion power is unlikely to become popular during the 2020s.
In the nuclear fusion field, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), which will be built by 35 countries around the world, is scheduled to start operation in 2025, but it is positioned as an experimental fusion reactor.
The world's first commercial scale fusion reactor is scheduled to start operation in 2025, 35 countries including Japan cooperate-gigazine
by IAEA Imagebank
China's “artificial sun” is expected to be operational during 2020.
Fusion reactor `` artificial sun '' capable of producing 200 million degree plasma is scheduled to start operation in 2020-gigazine
by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Baker summed up the forecasts for the 2020s, saying that the rate of trigger events where shocks such as environmental crises, pestilence, and the Great Depression lead to an era of violence is 'low to moderate', and the probability of a technological breakthrough Is “extremely low” ”said the outlook for the 2020s.
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