Is there a connection between rising house prices and declining birthrate?


Declining birthrate in developed countries can cause future economic stagnation, which is a big problem for governments of each country. The United States in 2017 has become the year with the lowest birth rate in the past 30 years, "Why does not the fertility rate rise as the economy recovers from the Lehman shock?We are also raising the question: Meanwhile, an analysis was announced that said, "It is related to rising house prices and declining birthrate."

Birth Rates Dropped Most in Counties Where Home Values ​​Grew Most - Zillow Research

The birthrate in the United States began to decline against the backdrop of the recession caused by the Lehman shock that occurred in 2008. The birthrate has declined to 1.93 per woman in 2010 compared with the birth rate per women was 2.12 in 2007. Despite expecting that "If the economy recovers, birthrate will recover accordingly," despite the economic recovery from the Lehman shock, the birthrate fell to 1.82 in 2016 and 1.76 in 2017 It is said that it is. If the birth rate per woman falls below "2.1", it is believed that the population will decline, so it is expected that the total population of the United States will decline as it is.

There is also pointed out that the change in the values ​​reflects that "the declining birthrate does not want young people in recent years to make many children"American Disease Control Center(CDC) wrote, "How many kids do you expect in your life?"questionnaireSo from 2002 to 2015, we have consistently said that they expect to make 2.3 children for women and 2.2 children for men. Therefore, it is said that the indication that the birthrate is decreasing because the working generation does not want to make children is wrong.

So, manage an online real estate database in the USZillowAnalyzed the relationship between house price and birthrate based on the change in the house price of the US calculated by himself and the data on the fertility rate announced by the CDC. Then, it seems that there is a result that "the relationship between the increase rate of house price and the decline of the birthrate is recognized".

byNorth Central Church

Although there are not many people who think that they want to purchase a large owner's house before having a child, those who aged 25 to 29 who begin to increase the proportion of trying to make a child with their partner It is almost impossible to have a house. The average age of people buying housing for the first time between 2010 and 2013 was 32.5 years, but the average age for purchasing houses for the first time in 2017 has risen to 35.2 years. Meanwhile, the average age for women giving birth to their children for the first time was also 27.7 years old in 2010, which was delayed until 28.7 years in 2016.

Zillow is the period from 2010 to 2016, in the United StatescountyWe analyzed whether there is a relationship between rising house prices per woman and the proportion of women between 25 and 29 years old giving birth. Then, in the county where the rate of increase in house prices is large, the rate of births in women in their late 20s has declined, and in the counties where the rate of increase in house prices is small, the percentage of births has not declined so much or the counties There were also things.

Taking the overall average, the birth rate in the county tended to drop by 1.5% more if the 10% home price rise rate was higher than the other counties. For example,Fairfax County, The house price rose by 17% from 2010 to 2016, the birthrate has decreased by 8.2%, while the house price is in CaliforniaMonterey CountyHousing prices are rising by 37%, and the birthrate is decreasing by 11.7%.

The correlation between the rising rate of house prices and the declining birthrate is particularly stronger than the average in the western and northeast parts of the United States. In the western and northeast parts of the USA such as California, Illinois, and New York, we can see that the birthrate has declined even more than the ratio of the average house price increase rate to the declining birthrate.

On the other hand, fertility rates tended to be higher in the Texas and Arizona counties in southern and southwestern United States than in the average fertility rate, and some fertility rates increased in some counties.

According to Zillow, who announced the analysis results, there is a correlation between the rate of increase in house prices and the declining birthrate in the United States, but it can not be determined that there is a cause-and-effect relationship, "Housing prices rise, It is said that it directly leads to a decline in the birthrate. " In addition, since the change in the correlation for each region is also observed as described above, "In the county where the declining birthrate is large, although it is a high income group that can live even if the house price rises, some factor There are also possibilities that multiple factors, including the possibility of being involved, are gathered in the occupation that children have difficulty holding, resulting in the above results.

Although there is no direct causal relationship between the increase in house price and the decline in birthrate, there is no doubt that there is a significant correlation. We classified the county into five levels according to the rate of increase in house prices and graphed the rate of declining birthrate as follows. The decline in the birthrate of the group with the lowest rate of increase in housing prices has been reduced to 5.4%, but in the group with the highest rate of increase in housing prices, you can see that the birthrate actually declined by 13.4%.

According to Zillow, house price rising rate is expected to remain only 6.5% in 2018 compared to 8.7% in 2017, although it is a real estate market in the United States where the house price rise greatly year by year. Excessive fever against real estate seems to show a tightening but Zillow says, "It can not be decided at the moment whether increasing the birthrate by lowering the rate of increase in house prices," at the moment.

in Note, Posted by log1h_ik