"Ultra high-speed rainfall forecast" will be displayed in real time that will update the world's first 30 seconds update & 10 minutes later weather forecast

The guerrilla torrential rain rapidly raise the water level of the river in only 10 minutes, so delay in handling several minutes may be fatal. So, it updates every 30 seconds and tells the precipitation distribution forecast until 10 minutes in real time "Ultrafast fast rainfall forecast"Was developed.

Ultra-fast rainfall prediction started after 30 seconds renewal at 10 minutes | RIKEN
http://www.riken.jp/pr/press/2017/20170704_1/

In the weather forecast, "precipitation Nowcast method" is assumed to keep track of the movement of precipitation pattern captured by weather radar and it keeps moving in the future as it is, but this method tracks the flat precipitation pattern, so raindrops It does not take into account the vertical motion of the robot, and there is a disadvantage that prediction accuracy drops rapidly.

Therefore, the international collaborative research group of researchers such as RIKEN Data Analysis Research Association Data Assimilation Research Team, Information and Telecommunication Research Institute Electromagnetic Wave Research Institute, Tokyo University Graduate School of System Design,3D Precipitation Watercast MethodDeveloped. The 3D Precipitation Nowcast method is to predict the rainfall with the assumption that the raindrops are captured three-dimensionally by clearly scanning the raindrops up to 60 km away at frequent intervals of 30 seconds every 30 seconds, and that the future will continue to move as it is.

At this time, the dataPhased array weather radarIt is collected using. Three-dimensional stereoscopic observation with a meteorological radar becomes important to observe the structure and precursor phenomena of localized and sudden atmospheric phenomena like guerrilla torrential rainfall, but the phased array weather radar employs a large number of antenna elements Since it is arranged and it is possible to electronically change the direction of the antenna beam, detailed three-dimensional structure can be observed in a shorter time.

The research team constructed a system that executes predictions in real time using the data of Phased Array weather radar installed at Osaka University and started real-time demonstration of the world's first 30 seconds update · Precipitation forecast until 10 minutes later He said that he did.

This precipitation forecast can be viewed from RIKEN's website.

RIKEN Weather Forecast Research: Home
https://weather.riken.jp/


At the time of article creation, the Kansai precipitation forecast has been released, and forecasts up to 10 minutes ahead are played in animation at 30 second intervals. By default, new information was automatically downloaded every 30 seconds.

RIKEN Weather Forecast: Kansai Precipitation Forecast
https://weather.riken.jp/jp/kansaimap/kansaimap.html


A prediction of the precipitation distribution after 10 minutes by the ultra fast precipitation forecast and a comparison of the actual observation can be seen from the following movie.

An example of precipitation distribution forecast after 10 minutes by 3D precipitation Nowcast - YouTube


It is the part of the red frame that I will look at, Osaka to Kyoto.


The state of the rain cloud actually observed on the left side, the forecast of the precipitation distribution on the right side. The following is predicted after 0.5 minutes.


Forecast after 3 minutes


Forecast after 5 minutes ... ... and observation and prediction are almost the same distribution chart.


In 7 minutes


After 10 minutes. Although there was a little difference every time, it was almost the result that the observation and the prediction agreed.


Researchers commented, "The guerrilla torrential rain sharply raises the water level of the river in just 10 minutes, delay of correspondence of several minutes may become fatal.Prediction information of short time up to ten minutes later Even if it is used appropriately, it can be expected to be useful for living, disaster prevention, etc. "