If works are not delivered with Netflix, it turns out that sales of BD / DVD will increase

ByPorcupiny

In the movie industry, the largest source of revenue in the field for home use is packaged sales of video software such as BD and DVD, and second place is streaming delivery. Although these two are rivalry, Netflix, which is a major streaming distribution player, has a great influence that DVD sales will grow by 24.7% when the work is delivered, especially at the Hong Kong University and Hong Kong City University It became clear by the investigation of.

The Causal Impact of Video Streaming on DVD Sales: Evidence from a Natural Experiment by Yinan Yu, Hailiang Chen, Chih Hung Peng, Patrick Y. K. Chau :: SSRN
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2897950


Netflix is ​​'Killing' DVD Sales, Research Finds - TorrentFreak
https://torrentfreak.com/netflix-is-killing-dvd-sales-research-finds-170117/

The Digital Entertainment GroupAccording to 2015, the size of the American movie industry (box office revenue) is 10,600 million dollars (about 1.2 trillion yen). The market size of the "home entertainment market" that combines all of video software sale, rental, download, streaming etc. is 18 billion dollars (about 2 trillion yen). Physical package sales account for 6.1 billion dollars (about 700 billion yen), and streaming distribution accounts for 5.1 billion dollars (about 580 billion yen).

Digital Entertainment Group 2015 Year End Home Entertainment Report
(PDF file)http://degonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/External_2015-Year-end-DEG-Home-Entertainment-Spending-1-5-2016.pdf

However, while streaming distribution showed a growth of 25% to 33% over the past 3 years, video software sales are in a state of dropping 10% or more in the past 3 years. As a matter of course, researchers who take a view that cooling down of video software sales is due to the excitement of streaming, of course, there has been no research on whether it is true or whether other elements exist.

This was done in this research. I was responsible for content distribution by three video production companies, Paramount Pictures, Lions Gate and Metro / Goldwyn Mayer (MGM)EPIXIt is a work of.

Originally EPIX had a license agreement with Netflix since 2010, but the contract expired at the end of September 2015, and this time we have signed a multi-year contract with Hulu. For this reason, as of the end of September 2015, works handled by EPIX became impossible to view in Netflix, and instead it became available for viewing with Hulu.

However, the number of users of Hulu was about 10.3 million, while Netflix was about 4 times, while the number of users of Netflix was 43.2 million at the time of contract change. In other words, as the scale of the streaming distribution service shrinks, the number of people viewing the corresponding work in streaming will decrease, so it is considered that someone will purchase video software instead.

The research group is a group named "A group that can only be seen in Netflix until the end of September 2015, but only in Hulu from the next day" and "A group that is seen only in Netflix before and after October 1, 2015 I did not see it in Hulu, "and examined the difference in sales of that video software. If the switching of the streaming distribution site does not occur, the sales of the video software should have not changed, so the difference between the figures after October 1, 2015 is "convenience of streaming delivery (whether it is easy to use or not)" It is thought that it is caused by.

It shows the relationship between the two groups. Group A is a Treatment Group in the figure, group B is written as Control Group in the figure.


As a result of investigation,Sales of video software will increase as convenience of streaming delivery fallsThe conclusion has come out. Specifically, regarding the work of the A group, sales of video software increased by 24.7% in three months after the distribution site was switched.

In particular, the closer the release time is, the closer it is, the higher the theater performance is, the more sales of video software are growing. Because of this, the research team advised that it is better to start the streaming delivery first to avoid "cannibalism" because the demand for the video software is high because "the latest work" and "the work that was well-respected at the theater" is high It is.

However, it is said that the work which was the subject of the study in this research is not only new works, but because some of them are not streaming video software because they are not streaming delivered, It seems to be investigating what kind of numbers differ in the work which is streaming delivered for the first time.

Also, although research on piracy is not taken into consideration, it is clear that the number of pirated copies is obviously decreasing when official streaming distribution is done. For example, BitTorrent, which may be used as a pirate distribution channel, accounted for 31% of net traffic in 2008, but it decreased to 4.35% in 2015. On the other hand, Netflix accounts for 34.7% of Internet traffic in 2015.

For rights holders of contents, it is likely to become a difficult problem what to do with the timing of the release of video software and the start of delivery when streaming distribution is putting more power.