Why do you feel that "it is always congested only in the way that you chose?"

ByEpSos .de

If possible I would like to avoid traffic jam, pay close attention, picked up a crowded road that sharpened the nerve, but only in the way I chose a heavy traffic jam, was the road that was right after all ...? It has something to everyone. Such a "road that you choose is always a traffic jam"Murphy's lawThere are people who are considering why the phenomenon that is likely to emerge will happen.

The Road Less Traveled | Quanta Magazine
https://www.quantamagazine.org/20150903-the-road-less-traveled/

Quanta MagazineColumnist Mr. Pradeep Mutalic is considering the cause of experiencing a strange phenomenon that everyone has experienced "Why do you feel that the road you chose is always congested and crowded?" I will.

Mr. Mutaric points out the possibility of the effect of "human emotional evocation" that the human brain possesses as a possible cause from a psychological point of view. This is that the human brain is far more memorable and easy to remember those uncomfortable and unforgivable experiences than comfortable and pleasant experiences. In other words, when you encounter a divorce road and choose one way, you are lucky to choose a road with no traffic jams and you are traveling in Switzerland, it's unfortunate that you have gone astray and get lost in a big traffic jam. Because people tend to remain in memory, "It is always a traffic jam that you choose" is felt.

ByPhilip Bitnar

Moreover, in addition to the effect of remembrance of memory, "Confirmation biasMentalallic thinks that the psychological effect due to "is one of leading causes. The verification bias is the tendency to "ignore inconvenient information that collects and disproves only information that supports it when verifying the hypothesis truth". Because I'd like to conclude that "the road I chose is always a traffic jam", I picked up only the experiences of thinking "I was congested at that time, so to speak that way", so I dared to close my eyes to the experiences I did not come across congested is.

In addition, Mr. Mutarick points out the mathematical reason for "Simple model is always chosen", considering a simple model. For example, if the car chooses one of the two roads one after the other and flows in one after another at the point where it is divided into two exact same roads, the probability that each road will be chosen is one-half, but actually It is possible that many automobiles will concentrate on either side. In this case, of course, roads with many inflows of automobiles are more likely to be crowded, "the road you have chosen is always a traffic jam." Then, the person (car) who experiences "congestion always on the chosen road" inevitably has more absolute numbers than people (cars) who could run without congestion owing to the choice of the other road, so the memory By bringing out the effect of evoked emotions and confirmation bias, it is easier for "people who choose the road are always jammed" to happen.


Mr. Mutaric thinks that he has not reached the confident answer about the cause of "always-congested road", and he is recruiting an idea to elucidate this mysterious phenomenon. It seems that they are looking for a theory to unravel the cause of 'always choked road' for people who provided an interesting and insightful solution as a gift for Quanta Magazine's special T-shirt.

The law of Murphy has a saying that "Everything that can possibly go wrong will go wrong." (All things that might not go well go out wrong) "There is always a congestion According to Murphy's law it seems obvious.