Forecast of "FIFA Women's World Cup 2015" victory / defeat by statistical data analysis of taste / What is Nadeshiko Japan's whereabouts?

Presidential election victory or defeat in all 50 statesTo make it possible to predict the results of baseball playersStatistics tool PECOTAA genius data analyst named Mr. Nate Silver known as a person who developed "FiveThirtyEightIs a news site that analyzes every event using statistics. The FiveThirtyEight has released the group league of "2015 FIFA Women's World Cup" to be held in Canada from 6 June to 5 July 2015 and the prediction of the game of the finals tournament, data analysis is spectacular I am attracting attention as to whether or not to go inside.

2015 Women's World Cup Predictions | FiveThirtyEight
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/womens-world-cup/

How Our Women's World Cup Model Works | FiveThirtyEight
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-womens-world-cup-model-works/

FiveThirtyEight gathered data on about 8000 games of women's football international games held since 1971 and predicts the game result using the index "WSPI (Women's Soccer Power Index)" released by ESPN. WSPI is a model of statistical analysis created by gathering data such as "winning and losing", "goal loss of each team", "participating player", "game location" of every game from the representative battle of the national team to the club team. It is not data as numbers, for example, it is made taking into consideration the importance difference between friendly and World Cup matches.

FiveThirtyEight can confirm the result of group stage of FIFA Women's World Cup Canada 2015 which analyzed and predicted using about 8000 games data and WSPI statistical model from the following. There are 6 group stage in all, the top 2 teams of each group will automatically pass, the top 4 teams in each group will pass, and will proceed to the final tournament that will be held after that.

◆ Group A team: Canada · China · New Zealand · Netherlands
Group A 's favorite is Canada of the host country. The probability of passing at No. 1 is 59.2%, and the probability of passing through the group is 93.2%. It is the Netherlands that has the highest probability of being in second place outside of Canada. In the Netherlands the probability of second place is 29.5% and the probability of passing through the group league is 69.0%.


◆ Group B team: Germany · Cote d'Ivoire · Norway · Thailand
In Germany it was predicted that it would pass 1st in Group B, with 83.4 percent probability. It is Norway that it was expected to pass the second place after Germany and the probability of being second in 69.0%.


◆ Group C team: Japan · Switzerland · Cameroon · Ecuador
Group C 's most dominant position is the previous champion Japan with a probability of passing first place by 79.3% and the probability of passing through the group league is 99.6%. It is predicted that Switzerland is the second place and Cameroon is the third place.


◆ Group D Team: USA, Australia, Sweden, Nigeria
It is group D where conflicts are expected, but America is the most likely to pass the first place and the group stage. Passing through the group with 96.2% probability, the probability of passing at 1st place is also 64.7%, overwhelming others. It is followed by Sweden and Australia.


◆ Group E team: Brazil, Korea, Spain, Costa Rica
Group E's 1st place is Brazilian Kingdom of Football. The probability of passing the first place is 70.0%, and the probability of passing through the group league is 98%. Following that is Spain with a 2nd passing rate of 36.8%, but South Korea also has a second highest passing rate of 37.3%, which is likely to be a battle for second place.


◆ Group F team: France · England · Colombia · Mexico
Group F's favorite is France with a 60.2% chance of passing 1st. In England, the probability of passing first place is 31.6%, the probability of passing second place is 43.7%. France and England will be ranked first and second, and they will compete for the third place in Mexico and Colombia.


The top 16 countries with high probability of progressing to the finals tournament are as follows. Germany, Japan, Brazil, France, the United States, Norway and Canada are expected to advance to the final tournament with more than 90%.


The top three countries with the highest probability of progressing to the quarter-finals are Germany, the United States, Japan. There was not one team expected to go to the quarterfinals by more than 90% as expected.


The only remaining in the semi-finals is probably America, Germany, Japan, Canada, when looking at only the probability. The probability of proceeding to the semi-finals is 65% in the United States.


And the prediction of the final appear to be America and Germany. The probability that Japan will proceed to the final is not bad as 23%, but America and Germany are expected to advance to the final with a chance of over 40%.


The highest probability of winning was 28% of America. However, Germany has a 27% chance of winning, with only 1% difference from the USA. Japan is the third highest probability with 10%.


Well, as expected by FiveThirtyEight, it seems interesting to look at the FIFA Women's World Cup Canada 2015 starting from June 6 from the viewpoint of data analysis, whether America and Germany advance in the final game.

In addition, if you win the FIFA Women's World Cup Canada 2015 group stage, the final tournament is as follows.


If winning and losing is decided according to the calculated probability of FiveThirtyEight, if Nadeshiko Japan passes the group league in the first place in C group, it will be the third team of Group A · B · F (China · Cote d'Ivoire · Mexico ), Then it will compete against Brazil, which is the first place in Group E, and in the semi-finals it will be against Canada, the host country. America and Germany are regarded as winning candidates, but if all three teams, including Japan, pass through the group league in the first place, Japan will be in a different block from the United States and Germany, so worry that they will hit the final It is predicted that it will advance to the finals with the highest probability as a team on the same block side.