The story about the birth month of the World Cup participation player "World Birthday Paradox" related to the World Cup

ByAlobos Life

Paradox of birthdayIs that the result of the problem "Is there a probability that people with the same birthday will have more than 50% if they gather?" Is quite different from general intuition. The answer to this question is how much "23 people"It is said that if there are only 23 people gathered in one year even though there is 365 days in a year, the probability that a person of the same birthday will be in excess of 50%. Currently being held in Brazil2014 FIFA world cupThere are 32 players from all over the world with a total of 736 players gathered, but when you examine "Paradox of birthday" for each World Cup participating team, you can see various interesting elements.

BBC News - The birthday paradox at the World Cup
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27835311


"Paradox of birthday is one of the greatest successes in mathematics" wrote how figures and real life worked togetherAlex Through the Looking-GlassAuthor of Alex Bellos. Mr. Bellos points out that the paradox of birthday is not a logical contradiction, it is just a non-logical paradox that simply gives unexpected results.

"If you have a school class with only 30 people and you have the same birthday, I think that it's usually a surprising coincidence, but in reality there is a probability that the same birthday pair will come out of 30 people There is also%, "Bellos said. Furthermore, if 70 people gather, the probability of pairing the same birthday will rise to 99.9%.

The graph below shows a graph showing the number of people on the horizontal axis and the probability that the same birthday pair appears on the vertical axis.


The probability that people with the same birthday as 23 people gather will exceed 50%, but this "twenty threeThe number is strangely the same as the number of players each national team can register with the team in the World Cup. So, it is extremely straightforward to check 32 teams in the World Cup to see if "Paradox of birthday" is the fact.

BritishBBCIn order to validate 'Paradox of birthday' with the participating team of the World Cup, using the date of birth information (as of June 10) of the official team list released by FIFA, the same birthday combination I am studying how many teams can be completed.

The information seen on the official page of FIFA looks something like this, there is a page with detailed information on each player, and the birth date is also marked in the red frame part.


As a result of the investigation, the teams with the same birthday are 16 teams from Spain, Colombia, Switzerland, USA, Iran, France, Argentina, Korea, Cameroon, Australia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, the Netherlands, Brazil, Honduras and Nigeria , Just over 50% of the results were oversubscribed. In addition, among the five countries of Switzerland, Iran, France, Argentina, and Korea, two of the same birthday combination were made.

The same birthday of the Brazilian national team who was the host country and declared the memorable first game of the Brazilian World Cup was the same as the Hoki player (left) who played in the Japan League of Japan and the middle of Brazil Paulinho who supports the (right). Their birthday is July 25th.


The same birthday at Argentina is Fernando Gago (left) and Augusto Fernandez. The two were born April 10, 1986 and are the same until the birth year.


Representative Korea Rep. Kak Taehi (left) and Song Hun Min (right) will have their birthday on July 8th during the tournament.


Asmir Begovich (left) and Cead Korashinuts (right) of Bosnia Herzegovina are born June 20, Begovich is 26 years old, Korasinatu is 21 years old.


Also, although not the same team, German national team Benedict Havelos (left) and Algeria representative Safir · Tidel was born on February 29's leap day.


In sports, the birthday date plays a very important role. Especially when I am small, because physical or physical superiority is likely to occur even in the same grade depending on whether it is early or late, children with better performance will be noticed more often from coaches, so if a child born in the early stages It is said to be advantageous. And FIFA has a rule of "the age standard of the international game is January 1", and in the representative game of the under generation and the Olympic game where the age restriction is set up, the participation of the players is decided based on this rule So, it is said that early birth in football players refers to those born at the beginning of the year, and late born refers to those born at the end of the year.

Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, reputed as an eccentric economist in 2006, pointed out that the World Cup had too many early-born players, but other scientists actually took part in the 2006 World Cup I surveyed the participating players and found no such result. However, in the monthly birth breakdown of the participants in the 2014 tournament, the month with the largest number of athletes is January (71 people), February (77 people), March (68 people), May (72 people ), With the fewest being the four in August (57 people), October (46 people), November (49 people), December (51 people). If 736 people from all the participating players are divided equally in 12 moons, the average monthly is 61 people, and in 2010 World Cup it is said that data similar to that in 2014 has come out, so " The hypothesis that there are many players who are fast-born is not necessarily a mistake.

In addition, it is said that if the 23 people gather at "Birthday Paradox", the same birthday combination will come out, "How many people need to have a probability that the same birthday person as you appear will exceed 50% If it comes to "or" it will be a calculation that requires 253 people.