Apr 07, 2020 11:10:00

Commentary on the movie `` The new coronavirus infection is more terrifying than the flu ''

During the outbreak of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in China alone, scientists expressed the view that

`` influenza is more dangerous than COVID-19, '' and the World Health Organization (WHO) Tedros Adanom, secretary-general, also announced that ' COVID-19 is not as contagious as influenza .' However, as the research progressed, the 'danger of COVID-19' gradually became apparent. Vox of overseas news media explains the dangers of COVID-19 in a movie titled ' COVID-19 is worse than influenza '.

Coronavirus is not the flu.It's worse.- YouTube


Measles, which is extremely infectious, spreads from one infected person to 12 to 18 people.

The number that indicates how many people spread from a single infected person is defined in epidemiology as the

basic number of reproductions (R ₀ ) . In the case of measles, R ₀ is '12-18'.

_R0 of Zika fever is '3-6.6', but seasonal influenza is only '1.3'

R _{0 of} COVID-19 is “2-2.5”.

R ₀ of seasonal influenza and COVID-19 is significantly smaller when compared with measles and deer heat, looks Chikashii numerical value.

Also, the symptoms of seasonal flu and COVID-19 are both common with fever, dry cough, occasional soreness and fatigue, and pneumonia. Therefore, 'seasonal flu is similar to COVID-19' is a very natural feeling.

But here, once again, return to _R0 . A seasonal flu with an _R0 of 1.3 means that one or two people will be infected. If 'ten times spread' occurs, the total number of infected people will be 56.

Similarly, if COVID-19 causes a “spread 10 times”, the lower limit of R ₀ for COVID-19 is “2”, so the total number of infected people is more than 2047.

Therefore, the R ₀ of '1.3' of seasonal influenza, R ₀ of '2-2.5' of COVID-19 is, gives birth actually tremendous difference may look to Chikashii numerical value.

The biggest difference between seasonal influenza and COVID-19 is the

incubation period . COVID-19 takes at least 5 days after infection and 2 weeks at longest. The problem here is that the virus can infect others even during the incubation period. COVID-19 spreads to others, even during incubation periods of up to two weeks.

On the other hand, the incubation period for seasonal influenza is only two days. In the case of seasonal flu, the symptoms appear immediately, so you can immediately realize that you have become ill. Therefore, it is highly likely that people infected with the new influenza will be able to act so as not to transmit to others.

However, people infected with COVID-19 can act for long periods of time without realizing that they are infected, thus infecting many others.

Seasonal influenza and COVID-19 also have different conditions for 'antibodies' that suppress viral infection. In the case of seasonal flu, people who have been vaccinated or have been infected in the past already have antibodies.

However, nobody has antibodies because COVID-19 is a new type of virus. Therefore, everyone on earth is vulnerable to COVID-19.

Only 2% of people are hospitalized with seasonal flu, but 20-31% are hospitalized with COVID-19.

Seasonal influenza has a fatality rate of 0.1%, whereas COVID-19 has an estimated fatality rate of 1-3%.

The mortality rate of 1-3%

does not mean that the mortality rate of all people is 1-3% . The fatality rate of COVID-19 is almost 0% in teens, but increases sharply with age. It has also been shown that people with high illness, such as high blood pressure and diabetes, have a high mortality rate.

It is now believed that COVID-19 can infect 20-60% of the world's population.

In order to confront COVID-19, it is important to maintain a 'social distance' that avoids contact and stays away from home. The COVID-19 epidemic will not spread without human intervention.

However, the strategy of maintaining social distance is effective only when everyone works together. The simple idea of 'similar to seasonal flu' should be discarded.