Global smartphone shipments are expected to fall 13% in 2026, the biggest drop on record, due to memory shortages
Research firm IDC has released its forecast for smartphone shipments in 2026. According to the forecast, global smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to fall 12.9% year-on-year to 1.12 billion units due to the worsening memory shortage crisis.
Worldwide Smartphone Market to Decline 13% in 2026, Marking the Largest Drop Ever Due to the Memory Shortage Crisis, according to IDC - IDC
According to IDC, this is one of the largest declines on record, and annual shipments are expected to reach their lowest level in over a decade. IDC believes that this crisis is not just a temporary supply shortage, but will have a 'tsunami-like impact' that will ripple through the entire consumer electronics industry, causing a structural reset that will fundamentally reshape the total addressable market (TAM), product mix, and manufacturer competitive landscape.
'This situation poses a significant threat to the smartphone market, especially Android manufacturers,' said Francisco Jeronimo, a vice president at IDC.
The rise in component prices, including memory, will have a direct impact on the profit margins of manufacturers that focus on low-priced products, forcing them to pass on the costs to consumers. Supply constraints and declining demand due to price increases could lead to industry restructuring, with smaller manufacturers withdrawing from the market.
In contrast, Apple and Samsung are well positioned to weather this crisis and are expected to potentially gain market share while smaller vendors struggle.
While smartphone shipments are experiencing a record decline, average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to rise 14% year-over-year to $523 (approximately ¥81,600). In particular, the low-end smartphone market, priced under $100 (approximately ¥15,500), which previously boasted a market size of 171 million units, is facing a major transformation in its business model as rising component costs have made it permanently unprofitable.
While memory prices are expected to begin to stabilize by mid-2027, they are not expected to return to previous low prices, making it difficult for both consumers and manufacturers to return to the business as usual, IDC said.
Regionally, markets with a higher proportion of low-cost smartphones are expected to be hit harder: the Middle East and Africa will face the steepest decline, down 20.6% year-on-year, followed by China, the world's largest market, down 10.5%, and Asia Pacific excluding Japan and China, down 13.1%.
The global smartphone market is forecast to stabilize from mid-2027, recovering modestly by 2% in the same year, before rebounding strongly in 2028 with a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. IDC warns that the crisis will permanently change the smartphone product mix, complicating the supply of affordable devices.
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in Hardware, Smartphone, Posted by log1i_yk