Dec 31, 2025 17:00:00

Research reveals that the damage to movie box office revenue caused by piracy varies by genre and can even be positively affected

Opinions and research findings are divided on the impact of online piracy on legitimate content sales. Some

reports state that online piracy does not have a negative impact on content sales, while others find that blocking pirate sites increases consumption of legitimate content, and others find that cracking down on pirated books significantly increases sales of physical books. A study on piracy and film box office revenues conducted by researchers at Monash University in Australia and San Jose State University in the United States showed that whether piracy has a positive or negative impact may vary depending on the film genre.

Avengers assemble! When digital piracy increases box office demand - ScienceDirect
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733325000952

Online Piracy Can Boost Box Office Revenue, Study Suggests * TorrentFreak
https://torrentfreak.com/online-piracy-can-boost-box-office-revenue-study-suggests/

A research team led by Klaus Ackermann of Monash University and Wendy A. Bradley of San Jose State University classified over 800 films that were widely pirated between 2004 and 2020, distinguishing between films that feature shocking images and sound or action films as 'spectacle' and films that feature dramas and comedies as 'story.' They then used upload data from pirate sites to track when high-quality pirated versions appeared online and estimated whether the appearance of pirated versions affected the box office revenue of currently released films.

The analysis first found that the impact of pirated copies on box office revenue depends on the quality of the pirated copies. Averaged across all 872 films, the presence of high-quality pirated copies increased box office revenue by about 3%, while the presence of low-quality pirated copies decreased box office revenue by about 24%.

The researchers also found that the impact of piracy on box office revenues was mitigated when the film was highly acclaimed or a sequel to a popular work. The researchers explain that this is because audiences often already have strong preconceived ideas about the content of highly acclaimed films and sequels, so piracy has less of an impact on consumer behavior.

Next, we analyzed whether the impact of piracy on box office revenue varies by film genre. The table below shows the impact of high-quality and low-quality pirated copies on box office revenue by genre. In genres classified as 'Narrative,' such as 'Mystery,' 'Biography,' 'Comedy,' and 'Romance,' piracy often had a stronger negative impact on box office revenue than the overall average, with an overall impact of -26.6%. On the other hand, in genres classified as 'Spectacle,' such as 'Action,' 'Adventure,' and 'Horror,' piracy often had a positive impact on box office revenue, with an estimated overall impact of +24.4%.

According to the researchers, spectacle-oriented films place a high value on viewing them in a theater, which is thought to create demand such as, 'I saw a pirated version and it was interesting, so I want to see it in the big screen at a movie theater.' On the other hand, story-oriented films do not have the informational value that theater viewing can enhance, so people are satisfied with watching pirated versions at home, which negatively impacts box office revenue.

'Our research shows that digital piracy doesn't have an equal negative impact on all movies,' said Bradley. Lead author Ackerman added, 'Action franchises like Marvel movies are well-suited to the modern cinema experience. Cinemas are already responding to this trend by offering more 'experiences' and special events. The film industry doesn't necessarily need to focus on cracking down on piracy; by offering a better theatrical experience, piracy can actually serve as promotion.'

The researchers' analysis found that 'piracy increases box office revenue for visually intensive spectacle films, but decreases box office revenue for narrative films.' This was consistent with their prior prediction, but the researchers noted that both the positive and negative effects were greater than expected. Furthermore, while one might expect that low-quality pirated versions would lead to a desire to revisit higher-quality films and have a positive impact on box office revenue, the actual results showed that low-quality pirated versions consistently had a negative impact on box office revenue. However, caution is needed regarding the possibility of a statistical imbalance, as some films only have low-quality pirated versions, while other films with high-quality pirated versions often also have low-quality pirated versions.