Chip shortages due to AI demand are predicted to increase smartphone prices by 6.9% in 2026
2026 Smartphone Shipment Forecasts Revised Down as Memory Shortage Drives BoM Costs Up
https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/2026-smartphone-shipment-forecasts-revised-down-as-memory-shortage-drives-bom-costs-up
Smartphone prices to rise in 2026 due to AI-fueled chip shortage
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/smartphone-prices-to-rise-in-2026-due-to-ai-fueled-chip-shortage.html
Counterpoint Research predicts that smartphone manufacturers will see their market share and year-on-year shipment growth in 2026. Apple and Samsung are expected to hold the top share at 19%, with overall market shipments expected to decline 2.1% year-on-year.
'Currently, the lower end of the market, models priced under $200 (approximately 31,000 yen), is the most severely affected, with bill of materials costs increasing 20 to 30 percent since the beginning of the year. Models in the mid- and high-end ranges of the market have seen price increases of 10 to 15 percent,' said MS Huang, research director at Counterpoint Research, pointing out that component costs are already rising.
According to Counterpoint Research's latest Memory Solutions for Generative AI, memory prices could rise 40% by the second quarter of 2026, resulting in component costs that could rise 8-15% or more above current elevated levels.
'At the low end, rapid smartphone price hikes are unsustainable,' said senior analyst Yang Wang. 'If they can't pass on costs, OEMs will start streamlining parts of their portfolios. In fact, we're starting to see signs of this, with the volume of low-end
As a result of cost pass-through and portfolio restructuring, the average selling price of smartphones is expected to increase by 6.9% in 2026. In September 2025, Counterpoint Research predicted that the average selling price of smartphones would increase by 3.9% in 2026.
'Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters, but it will be tough for other companies that don't have as much room to juggle market share and profit margins. I think this will be especially evident for Chinese OEMs as the year progresses,' Wang said.
'For some models, we've seen downgrading of components such as camera modules, periscope solutions, displays, audio components, and of course memory configurations,' said senior analyst Shengao Bai. 'Other strategies include reusing older components, streamlining the portfolio, and adopting new designs to push consumers towards higher-spec models and encourage them to upgrade.'
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