Why is Elon Musk's SpaceX winning so many military launch contracts?
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In April 2025, the US Department of Defense signed launch mission contracts with three space development companies totaling $13.5 billion (approximately 1.98 trillion yen), with SpaceX, CEO of Elon Musk, receiving the largest contract of $5.9 billion (approximately 860 billion yen). In addition, SpaceX's number of orders for launch missions scheduled for 2025 by the US Space Force and the National Reconnaissance Office is far ahead of its rival United Launch Alliance . Technology media Ars Technica has summarized why SpaceX is receiving so many military-related launch contracts.
Here are the reasons SpaceX won nearly all recent military launch contracts - Ars Technica
https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/04/a-key-spacex-competitor-says-he-has-not-been-impacted-by-musks-ties-to-trump/
Musk supported the election campaign of Donald Trump, the 47th President of the United States, and although he is not a politician, he has a strong influence in the Trump administration. Given this background, some people speculate that SpaceX's success in winning military-related launch contracts may be due to its relationship with President Trump.
Tory Bruno, CEO of rival United Launch Alliance, was asked by a reporter about Musk's relationship with Trump at a space symposium held in April. Bruno responded, 'We are certainly not influenced at this point by our position as a competitor advising the president. I expect the government to follow all the rules, to be fair, and to abide by the law, so we are behaving in the same way,' saying that Musk's relationship with Trump has not influenced the company's ability to win launch-related contracts.
In the first place, the Department of Defense and military officials believe that access to space should not be dependent on a single space development company, but rather it is better for multiple space development companies to have launch know-how. In fact, in the 12 months leading up to the time of writing, the Space Force has signed contracts with
Regarding the reason why Bruno gave the above answer, Ars Technica analyzed that 'SpaceX has a ready-made line of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy that can be used to launch military satellites for the Department of Defense, so it can launch them more cheaply than other companies. In other words, SpaceX can get a contract from the Space Force because it has an advantage in both price and performance, not because Musk and President Trump are close.
In addition, development of the United Launch Alliance's large rocket, Vulcan , was delayed due to an explosion in 2023, and it was not until March 2025 that the Space Force qualified it to carry out national security missions, several years later than planned.
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The $13.5 billion contract, awarded in April to the Department of Defense and three space development companies, is for a total of 54 launch missions between 2027 and 2032. Of the 54, SpaceX will be responsible for 28, United Launch Alliance for 19, and Blue Origin for 7. The last major competition in 2020 was a one-on-one battle between United Launch Alliance and SpaceX, with United Launch Alliance winning more missions by a ratio of 6:4.
Regarding the results of this launch competition, Bruno said, 'We are happy to have received this contract,' explaining that he was not surprised by the result. In the first place, Bruno thought that the results of 2020, in which they received 60% of the launches, were an upset, and he expected that this time the competition would be even more intense.
The specific missions that each company will be responsible for have not yet been decided, but the 'Mission Allocation Committee' held once a year by the Space Force and other organizations will decide which missions each company will be responsible for in that fiscal year. It has been announced that SpaceX will be responsible for seven of the nine national security missions in fiscal year 2025, and United Launch Alliance will be responsible for two.
Of SpaceX's seven national security missions, four are with the Space Force and three are with the National Reconnaissance Office, with a total value of $845.8 million, while United Launch Alliance has two contracts, both with the Space Force, with a total value of $427.6 million.
Regarding this difference, Ars Technica points out that the launch pad for United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket is only at Cape Canaveral Space Force Base in Florida, and the mission to be launched at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California was not assigned. Cape Canaveral Space Force Base is surrounded by ocean to the east, making it suitable for launching GPS networks and satellites in geostationary orbit, while Vandenberg Space Force Base is surrounded by ocean to the south, making it suitable for missions that carry payloads to polar orbit . In other words, since the missions suitable for each space force base are different, this time the mission that required launch at Vandenberg Space Force Base was automatically assigned to SpaceX.
Gen. Christine Panzenhagen, director of the Space Force's Assured Access to Space office, said the Space Force will not assign specific missions to United Launch Alliance until the launch pad is complete. 'Companies can be certified for a subset of missions while continuing to work toward meeting the broader mission certification criteria. In this case, United Launch Alliance is not certified for West Coast launches and is currently working on that,' Panzenhagen said.
United Launch Alliance is a joint venture established by Lockheed Martin and Boeing in 2006, and had a monopoly on national security missions for a long time until SpaceX was certified as the company in charge of national security missions in 2015. 'Monopoly is not healthy. For several years before I came to United Launch Alliance, we had a monopoly because no one else had the launch capability and there were not so many missions. This was not enough to support many providers. Now we have enough support and we are in a better position,' said Bruno.
Even at the time of writing, United Launch Alliance is not entirely inferior to SpaceX. SpaceX's rockets are primarily suited to carrying payloads to low Earth orbit (LEO) , but for missions that involve carrying payloads to higher orbits or directly placing multiple payloads in geostationary orbit, United Launch Alliance's Vulcan is more suitable.
'SpaceX tends to be more efficient at drop-offs in LEO, and let's be honest about this, which is, there's a middle ground where there's a competition space, and then at the ends, there's an end point where they're good at what they do, so we're going to continue to win in our space, and SpaceX is going to continue to win in SpaceX space, and in those middle areas, every mission is a game of chance,' Bruno said.
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