Mar 12, 2025 12:00:00

Climate change is causing the Earth's atmosphere to shrink, and research shows that if things continue this way, satellites will no longer be able to operate

Climate change is already having a variety of adverse effects on Earth, but new research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and others has found that greenhouse gas emissions are also affecting satellite orbits, reducing the number of operational satellites by up to half or more.

Greenhouse gases reduce the satellite carrying capacity of low Earth orbit | Nature Sustainability

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-025-01512-0

Study: Climate change will reduce the number of satellites that can safely orbit in space | MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology
https://news.mit.edu/2025/study-climate-change-will-reduce-number-satellites-safely-orbit-space-0310

Most research on greenhouse gas-induced climate change has focused on the troposphere, where most life and people on Earth live, and has neglected its impact on the upper atmosphere. However, the number of low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites launched for technologies such as internet communications, weather forecasting, and navigation has rapidly increased in recent years, making humanity more dependent on the sustainability of this region than ever before.

In a study published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Sustainability on March 10, 2025, a research team from MIT and the University of Birmingham reported that greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, could cause the upper atmosphere to shrink.

Particularly problematic is the contraction of

the thermosphere , the region in which the International Space Station and most satellites orbit: as this region shrinks, the atmosphere becomes less dense and offers less air resistance.

Air resistance slows down satellites and eventually causes them to fall to Earth, so reducing air resistance may seem like a good thing at first glance, but it also extends the lifespan of abandoned satellites and space junk. This means that space debris will continue to orbit at high speed in the same orbit as satellites for a long period of time, and the Kessler syndrome , which accelerates the risk of collisions in orbit, is expected to become more serious.

Previous preliminary simulations had shown that increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions could trap heat in the lower layers of the atmosphere, causing climate change, while radiating heat higher up, effectively cooling the thermosphere and causing the atmosphere to shrink.

The team also developed a model to simulate how increasing greenhouse gases will affect the thermosphere and change the behavior of objects in orbit, and calculated the 'satellite carrying capacity' of low Earth orbit. The results showed that the carrying capacity of the most popular satellite orbital regions could decrease by 50 to 66 percent by 2100.

'As climate change disrupts the status quo, the upper atmosphere is also at risk,' said MIT's William Parker, lead author of the paper. 'At the same time, we are seeing a massive increase in the launch of satellites to provide broadband internet from space. Unless we carefully manage this trend and make efforts to reduce carbon emissions, space is becoming overcrowded, leading to increased collisions and debris.'

As a means of reducing space debris, research is underway on technologies such as destroying debris with powerful lasers and collecting space debris using the electrical action of beams. However, neither of these technologies are close to being put into practical use, so the safety of satellite orbits currently relies on natural braking by the atmosphere.

A sci-fi technology that uses a tractor beam to attract and collect space debris could become a reality - GIGAZINE

'What we do over the last 100 years with greenhouse gases on Earth will affect how satellites operate for the next 100 years,' said study co-author Richard Linares, an associate professor in the MIT School of Aeronautics and Astronautics.