Chocolate prices are rising due to climate change
Chocolate has become an indispensable daily snack or Valentine's Day gift, but a survey has reported that climate change is affecting the production of
Climate Change is Heating Up West Africa's Cocoa Belt | Climate Central
https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/climate-and-cocoa-2025
Cocoa crisis: Climate change threat to chocolate laid bare in new report ahead of Valentine's Day – Christian Aid | Mediacentre
https://mediacentre.christianaid.org.uk/cocoa-crisis-climate-change-threat-to-chocolate-laid-bare-in-new-report-ahead-of-valentines-day/
Climate Change Is Coming For Your Chocolate, Study Finds : ScienceAlert
https://www.sciencealert.com/climate-change-is-coming-for-your-chocolate-study-finds
About 70% of cocoa beans, the raw material for chocolate, are produced in West African countries such as Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. However, due to climate change in recent years, these West African countries have experienced an increase in abnormal weather, which has had a negative impact on cocoa bean yields and chocolate prices.
Climate Central , an independent research group, used observational data collected from 44 cocoa-growing regions in West Africa and computer models to analyze how human-induced climate change, primarily due to the burning of oil, coal and methane gas, has affected temperatures in these regions between 2015 and 2024.
The analysis used actual observational data and estimates of what temperatures would have occurred in a world without human-induced climate change, derived from Climate Central's Climate Change Index system. The team also looked at days when temperatures in these regions reached or exceeded 32 degrees Celsius, which would be detrimental to cocoa cultivation.
The analysis revealed that the frequency of temperatures exceeding 32 degrees Celsius has increased over the past decade in major cocoa-producing regions in West Africa. In particular, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of the world's cocoa bean production, have seen an average of 40 more days exceeding 32 degrees Celsius over the past decade. Cameroon and Nigeria have also seen an average of 18 and 14 more days exceeding 32 degrees Celsius per year, respectively.
In the graph below, the solid bars represent 'days of 32 degrees Celsius or higher that are estimated to have occurred in a world without anthropogenic climate change,' and the striped bars represent 'days of 32 degrees Celsius or higher that actually occurred.' From the left, the countries are Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, and it can be seen that the impact of anthropogenic climate change is particularly large in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana.
Climate Central's report also explains that changes in rainfall, smuggling and the spread of virus-carrying
Another report by the British charity Christian Aid reported that in 2024, anthropogenic climate change would increase the number of days with temperatures above 32 degrees Celsius by six weeks in four countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. In 2023, unexpected heavy rains in Ghana caused cocoa to rot, while in 2024 severe drought caused damage.
'Cocoa farming is a vital livelihood for many of the world's poorest people, and man-made climate change is seriously threatening it,' said Osai Ojigho, Christian Aid's director of policy and public campaigns. He pointed out that greenhouse gas emissions from developed countries in the northern hemisphere are hitting producers in the southern hemisphere hard.
Due to the decline in cocoa bean yields, the price of cocoa has been rising in the London and New York markets since 2023. For decades, the price of cocoa in the New York market has fluctuated between $2,000 and $3,000 per ton, but in mid-December 2024, it peaked at $12,500 (about 1.9 million yen), and on February 12, 2025, it exceeded $10,000 (about 1.5 million yen).
Chocolate prices are rising along with rising raw material prices, and major manufacturers such as Glico, Morinaga, Meiji, and Lotte have announced price increases for chocolate in 2024. Luxury chocolate manufacturer Godiva has also reportedly increased the prices of its Valentine's Day products for 2025 by about 10% compared to the previous year .
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