May 25, 2024 18:00:00

Psychologist shares 7 steps to distinguish real conspiracies from conspiracy theories

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Some conspiracy theories, such as the flat Earth theory, are hard to believe at first, but it is true that these discourses use clever rhetoric to attract many people. H. Colleen Sinclair, a social psychologist at Louisiana State University in the United States, explained how to distinguish whether news spreading on social media is a real problem or a conspiracy theory.

How to tell if a conspiracy theory is probably false
https://theconversation.com/how-to-tell-if-a-conspiracy-theory-is-probably-false-229081

Step 1: Find the evidence
According to Sinclair, if someone makes the following claims without providing any evidence, it's a red flag that they might be conspiracy theorists:
They reject traditional sources of information and claim that they are supporting conspiracy theories.
- They claim that the lack of information is due to someone concealing something, even though it is normal for all the facts not to be fully revealed immediately after an incident occurs.
・ Attacking superficial inconsistencies as 'false evidence.' As an example, Sinclair cites the tactic of asking questions based on election-related conspiracy theories in the context of congressional responses, and instead of presenting evidence for his claims, pushing the costs of denying them onto his opponents.
Stretching ambiguities into evidence, such as claiming that an unidentified flying object (UFO) is an alien spacecraft because the identity of the object is unknown.
Substituting vague hearsay as evidence, such as 'people say this' or 'a friend of a relative told me about his experience.'
- They claim that the knowledge is hidden not in evidence that is obvious to everyone, but in secret messages that only a select few can understand.

Step 2: Look for evidence to the contrary
If conspiracy theorists do present evidence, they will only present evidence that supports their theory and avoid exposing their claims to any counterarguments or criticism that might call into question the veracity of their claims.

So to spot a conspiracy theory, it's a good idea to think about what evidence would refute the claim and then look for that evidence, just as scientists often do in their research.

Step 3: Beware of large-scale shadow organizations
The idea of a large group operating over a long period of time is another red flag for conspiracy theories, because most real conspiracies that have been found to exist in the past have involved small, isolated groups, such as the executives of a large company or a lone terrorist cell.

For example, in the scandal of the 1950s when major tobacco companies tried to cover up the health risks of their products,

it was found that only a handful of executives were involved in the decision-making, handing over money to scientists and advertising agencies who would spread the good news.

On the other hand, dubious conspiracy theories tend to allege that a wide range of people and organizations are involved, including world leaders, government agencies, major media outlets, the scientific community, and the entertainment industry, including Hollywood.

'It's good to remember that the more people who know a secret, the harder it is to keep it,' Sinclair said.

4. Find the motive
Genuine conspiracies often explain why a group acted the way they did and what they hoped to gain from it, while questionable conspiracy theories don't take into account the benefits to those perpetrating them and often ignore the costs.

For example, there are

claims on the Internet that Finland does not exist and is a fictitious country invented by Japan and Russia to obtain fishing rights. There are also claims that NASA satellite photos and maps showing Finland's existence are fabricated. However, NASA has no interest in participating in such conspiracies.

Conversely, motives can also provide clues as to whether a conspiracy theory is true: During the COVID-19 pandemic, just 12 individuals were found to have generated two-thirds of the anti-vaccination misinformation circulating on social media, and these individuals were also found to have made money from making these claims.

Just 12 anti-vaxxers generate two-thirds of the 810,000+ pieces of anti-vaccination content on social media - GIGAZINE

Step 5: Find the source of the suspicion
Another red flag is when the source of a conspiracy claim is unknown - that is, when it's unclear how the person making the claim found out about it. Often, the cover-up is that people have to remain anonymous to avoid retaliation for revealing information, but Sinclair points out that 'even if this is true, real conspiracies can be traced back to their source, such as a social media account.'

Such sources may later come forward or reveal themselves. For example, in the Watergate scandal that led to the downfall of U.S. President Richard Nixon, it was revealed 33 years after the scandal was uncovered that the inside source known as Deep Throat was Mark Felt, a senior FBI official at the time.

◆ Step 6: Beware of supernatural phenomena
Some conspiracy theories involve supernatural forces such as paranormal phenomena, aliens, and demons. For example, in the 1980s and 1990s in the United States, there was a public outcry over the fear that a satanic cult was sacrificing children through satanic ritual abuse , and this idea has continued to take on new forms, such as QAnon , but it remains deeply rooted in modern American society.

Similarly, the 1983 TV drama ' V ' influenced some Americans to believe in the existence of lizard men . While simply believing in the existence of lizard men or Bigfoot is harmless, reports have revealed that in the case of the bomb explosion in Nashville, Tennessee on December 25, 2020, the culprit may have believed in the conspiracy theory that 'the Earth is ruled by lizard men.'

Step 7: Beware the allure of conspiracy theories
Conspiracy theories share some other typical characteristics, such as prejudice against groups that are supposed to be behind the scenes, such as the anti-Semitism of QAnon.

Sinclair also said that proponents of conspiracy theories tend to prefer to dismiss skeptics as fools or to label them as part of the conspiracy, rather than examine the truth of the claims.

'That's part of the appeal of conspiracy theories: It's easier to ignore criticism than to admit that you might be wrong,' Sinclair said.