Many Americans feel that ``crime is increasing,'' but in reality, violent crime in 2023 will be at its lowest level in decades.
In the gun society of the United States, gun murders and mass shootings occur frequently, and in 2023, gang shoplifting,
Crime in 2023: Murder Plummeted, Violent and Property Crime Likely Fell Nationally
https://jasher.substack.com/p/crime-in-2023-murder-plummeted-violent
Most people think the US crime rate is rising. They're wrong.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/people-think-crime-rate-up-actually-down-rcna129585
A poll conducted by the consulting firm Gallup in October 2023 found that 63% of Americans consider crimes that occur in the United States to be 'extremely serious' or 'very serious,' an increase from the previous poll in 2021. This is the highest rate since 2000, up from 54%. Only 17% of people answered that crime in their area was 'extremely serious' or 'very serious,' which is also the highest figure since 2000.
Additionally, more than three-quarters (77%) answered that 'crime in the United States has increased compared to a year ago,' and 55% said that crime in their local area has increased compared to a year ago. I was aware that it was. People who actually live in the United States feel that the crime rate in the United States is on the rise.
However, an analysis by criminologist Jeffrey Asher found that in 2023, the number of murders in the United States will plummet, and all serious crimes except car theft will decrease. As of Dec. 7, homicides were down 12.7% compared to the same point in 2022, Usher said, and were down in 73% of the more than 175 cities for which data is available. That's what he said.
Of course, not all cities have seen a decline in homicides, with some cities seeing more homicides than in 2022, and 2023 homicides higher than pre-pandemic 2019. However, the sharp rise in the number of murders seen during the pandemic appears to have subsided nationwide.
Furthermore, looking at
The rate of property crimes (including burglary and arson) was almost unchanged compared to the same period last year in cities with a population of over 1 million people, but it was down in all cities with a population of less than 1 million people. Furthermore, one of the reasons why property crime in large cities has not decreased is that car thefts are rapidly increasing, especially in large metropolitan areas.
Mr. Asher said that the FBI's quarterly data is collected from institutions that cover 78% of the American population, and that past quarterly reports are quite close to annual reports. Therefore, although the data analyzed this time is as of September 2023, it is argued that it can be inferred that crimes occurring throughout the United States will be on the decline in 2023.
If the number of violent crimes in 2023 is as shown in the quarterly data, violent crime will be at its lowest level since 1969, as shown in the graph below.
Property crime rates are also at their lowest level since 1961.
Regarding the reason why people felt that crime was increasing when it was actually decreasing, Asher pointed out that the Internet and SNS have an influence. For example, many people who safely receive left-delivered packages do not bother to report on SNS that their package arrived safely, and even if they do, it is never talked about. However, a small number of people who have had their luggage stolen often post on social media that their left-over luggage was stolen, and there is a high possibility that this will be spread, so cases of crime are not visible to the public. It's easy.
'We can't resist the idea that 'crime is on the rise,'' Asher said. 'We're overwhelmed by the number of media articles and videos that have gone viral. I have to believe that social media is playing a role in why people think there has been an increase.'
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