Nov 14, 2023 23:30:00

How will professional communities rise and fall?

While there have been many stories about the rise and fall of general online communities, including

copies of ``The Life of a Community,'' there are few stories about communities where more specialized people gather. Mr. lcamtuf, an information security expert who has participated in expert communities dozens of times over the years, proposes a ``general expert community life cycle.''

The evolution of expert communities - lcamtuf's thing
https://lcamtuf.substack.com/p/the-evolution-of-expert-communities

◆Stage 1: Orderly growth
According to lcamtuf, most online communities emerge as offshoots of other, less specialized groups or as ad hoc forums for local enthusiasts.

In the early days, there is primarily a thirst for knowledge, members are enthusiastic about sharing what they have learned, and there is no defined hierarchy or stupid questions. All newcomers are warmly welcomed.

After a few months, a group epistemic consensus begins to emerge, driven by the most active and most knowledgeable participants.

◆Stage 2: Deluge
Successful online communities rarely plateau at Stage 1; they eventually reach a 'visibility threshold' and enter a period of explosive growth. The triggers vary; some come naturally, while others are caused by external factors. According to lcamtuf, for example, reddit's /r/preppers has expanded five times in size due to COVID-19.

At this point, uncontrolled growth becomes a drawback. Newbie questions are asked repeatedly, the core contributors become exhausted, and some people leave the community. Additionally, as the quality of discussion deteriorates, some people will emerge who seek new norms.

◆Stage 3: Crackdown
In order to restore order to the community, detailed rule making begins. Toward this goal, our experienced members create FAQs and strict posting guidelines that span multiple pages.

However, these good-faith measures often fail, and we enter an era of ``newbie elimination'' in which participants who do not follow protocol are mocked and punished. There are situations where people who commit minor offenses are permanently banned.

◆Stage 4: Downhill
While “crackdowns” may stem the influx of newbies, they can also be a fatal blow to meaningful growth. Reducing the noise also reveals an inconvenient truth: there are no topics left for key participants to discuss.

Industry headlines and new product announcements provide temporary relief, but not enough to provide a renewed sense of purpose for the group. As the number of members decreases, the community becomes more prone to difficult topics, meta discussions, and inside humor.

◆Stage 5: Peaking out
Eventually the community reaches a termination state. As a result of the dropout of unenthusiastic participants, only a handful of 10-year players remain. The focus is now on jokes that are far from the original topic, and the most active threads are related to politics, health issues, divorce, and death. Topical conversations revolve around the supposed ignorance of new types of experts and the superiority of old ways of doing things.

In addition, lcamtuf says, ``This is a transformation that reflects the changing priorities of community members, and naturally creates room for new communities to reflect. I would be reluctant to call it a decline.''