Why did China's last dynasty, the Qing dynasty, suddenly collapse?
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China's last dynasty, the Qing Dynasty, lasted for over 250 years, from the 17th century to the early 20th century. However, the Qing Dynasty, which had been prosperous for nearly 200 years, began to decline rapidly from the mid-19th century, and collapsed in 1912. Complexity Science Hub (CSH), a research organization based in Vienna, Austria, is analyzing why the Qing Dynasty suddenly collapsed.
Structural-demographic analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) collapse in China | PLOS ONE
New study uncovers the causes of the Qing Dynasty's collapse
https://phys.org/news/2023-09-uncovers-qing-dynasty-collapse.html
The predecessor of the Qing Dynasty was the Later Jin state, which was founded in Manchuria in northeastern China in 1616 by Nurhachi , a member of the Jurchen tribe, Aishinjuluo. Later Jin changed its name to Qing in 1636 and moved its capital to Beijing in 1644. The Qing Dynasty, which ruled China from the 17th to the 18th century, achieved great economic growth by exporting tea, ceramics, raw silk, and other goods.
However, from the end of the 18th century, European countries began to put pressure on them as they noticed their economic momentum. In particular, Britain, which had been running into a trade deficit by importing tea and ceramics from Qing, began exporting opium to Qing, causing a significant decline in Qing's national power. Concerned about this, the Qing Dynasty confiscated and disposed of the opium owned by British merchants, and the Opium War broke out with Britain. As the people exploded their dissatisfaction with the increasing pressure from other countries and against the Qing Dynasty, revolutionary movements intensified, and the establishment of the Republic of China was proclaimed in 1911 with the Xinhai Revolution . The Qing dynasty came to an end in 1912 with the abdication of the last Qing emperor, Aixinjuluo Puyi.
CSH conducted research into the causes of the collapse of the Qing Dynasty. CSH researcher Peter Turchin said, ``A variety of factors have been cited for the collapse of the Qing dynasty, including environmental disasters, foreign expansion, famine, and riots.However, none of these factors are comprehensive. I haven't been able to give a proper explanation,' he said.
According to CSH, the following three factors dramatically increased social tensions:
1: Population explosion
The Qing Dynasty experienced a population explosion between 1700 and 1840, with the population roughly quadrupling. As a result, the amount of land per person has decreased, and poverty has increased, especially in rural areas.
2: Intensifying elite competition
With the population explosion, the number of people aspiring to become bureaucrats increased rapidly. However, the number of highest degrees awarded decreased in response, reaching a nadir in 1796. In China's bureaucratic society, academic qualifications were absolute, so while the number of applicants to become bureaucrats increased, the number of places available for obtaining degrees decreased, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of former elite applicants who failed to become bureaucrats and fell into the ranks. Did.
3: Increased cost to solve the problem
Productivity per capita declined, reserves of silver, a major export item, decreased and imports of opium increased, increasing Qing's trade deficit and increasing the financial burden on the nation. did.
The CSH argues that the population explosion caused by the country's growth led to the collapse of the bureaucratic system and a decline in the productivity of the people, creating a situation where the country's power was severely depleted and susceptible to major rebellions.
According to the CSH, social tensions in the Qing Dynasty had already reached their peak between 1840 and 1890. Turchin said, ``It would be wrong to say that the Qing rulers were not aware of this growing social tension. It shows.”
However, many of the solutions attempted by the Qing Dynasty were short-sighted and did not sufficiently solve the problem. For example, CSH argues that although the government has raised the quota for bureaucrats, it has not increased the critical recruitment quota, which has resulted in further escalation of social tensions.
Georg Orlandi, CSH researcher and lead author of the paper, explained why he analyzed the collapse of the Qing dynasty: ``We can draw valuable lessons from this historical process for the present and the future.'' Many countries around the world face unstable situations very similar to those of the Qing Dynasty, where large numbers of individuals competing for a limited number of posts leads to at least an increase in social instability. 'This is a possibility and should be seen as a red flag by political decision-makers.'
“Unfortunately, the effects of rising inequality and reduced opportunities develop over longer time spans, making them harder to recognize,” said CSH researcher Daniel Heuer. Without a long-term vision and targeted strategy to alleviate the pressure, many regions are at risk of following the same path as the Qing dynasty.'
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