Jun 19, 2022 20:00:00

What are the 'three pandemic scenarios' that describe what the new Corona will look like five years from now?

In Japan as well,

deregulation regarding the obligation to wear masks is underway, and in some countries and regions, signs of a pandemic convergence of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) are beginning to appear, although it is unpredictable. .. Meanwhile, the International Science Council (ISC) , which unites scientific organizations around the world, has put together three scenarios of what the pandemic will look like five years from now.

Unprecedented & Unfinished: COVID-19 and Implications for National and Global Policy
(PDF file) https://council.science/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/UnprecedentedAndUnfinished-OnlineVersion.pdf

Forecasting the next five years of the COVID-19 crisis --Scimex
https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/five-more-years-of-covid-19-crisis-ahead,-forecasts-leading-global-science-council

Here's How The Next 5 Years Might Look: Scientists Outline 3 Likely Pandemic Outcomes
https://www.sciencealert.com/this-is-what-the-next-5-years-of-the-pandemic-might-look-like

On May 17, 2022, the ISC compiled a report of recommendations from 20 experts in public health, viral science, economics, behavioral science, ethics, and sociology, in which 'new Without international cooperation, inequality is likely to continue to worsen for at least the next five years, 'he concludes with three scenarios that the international community could take by 2027.

◆ Scenario 1: Vaccination rate of 71% or more
This most optimistic scenario depicts a future in which more than 71% of the world's population could be vaccinated through a high level of international cooperation. In this scenario, dubbed 'Collaboration Plus,' vaccine development and enhanced distribution capacity maintain high global prevention rates, and effective antivirals are affordable even in low-income countries. It is expected that it will be widely available in.

Even in this scenario, COVID-19 has not been eradicated, and in low-income countries, the re-emergence of COVID-19 can put a strain on the healthcare system, but it is much easier to control than at the height of the pandemic. It has become. In addition, as a result of the reduced threat of pandemics, many countries are able to prioritize the ' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ' advocated by the United Nations.

Unfortunately, there is a huge gap between vaccination programs in each country, so the possibility of this scenario, which requires not only improved vaccination rates but also the cooperation of countries around the world, is not very high. Regarding the current state of the international community, the ISC pointed out that 'governments have prioritized national strategy over international cooperation, which has prolonged the pandemic.'

◆ Scenario 2: Vaccination rate 60-70%
The most likely is the 'Continuity' scenario, where the inoculation rate remains below 70%. In this scenario, effective vaccines are being developed that are continuously updated as the virus evolves, but there are unvaccinated people, mainly in low-income countries, and people who

evacuate vaccines in developed countries as well. It is an obstacle to the acquisition of herd immunity.

This assumption allows booster doses in many countries and invests in social recovery mechanisms, but the efforts are sporadic and there are temperature differences both internationally and within the country. As a result, COVID-19 becomes endemic all over the world and becomes epidemic every season, requiring vaccine renewal and continued development of antiviral drugs.

In the documentary video of Vox, an overseas media released in March 2021, 'The international community failed to contain COVID-19 in the early stages, so it did not lead to eradication like smallpox and became endemic like influenza. It would be. '

A movie that answers the question 'Can the new coronavirus be eradicated?' --GIGAZINE

◆ Scenario 3: Vaccination rate less than 60%
The most avoidable future is the deterioration of social conditions around the world due to geopolitical tensions such as the Ukrainian War, protectionist policies, and the failure to build a cooperative system for pandemic countermeasures, resulting in a slump in vaccination rates and widespread inequality. This is a scenario. This 'Missed Recovery' scenario continues to require lockdown, telecommuting policies, and strict social restrictions, and we anticipate that COVID-19 will experience uncontrollable and dangerous recurrences around the world. It has been.

To avoid this future, experts suggest that governments around the world must work together to invest in health care systems to address growing education and inequality between rich and poor. In addition, as climate change and environmental destruction progress, the risk of another pandemic occurring in the future increases , so it is also claimed that 'initiatives to control climate change require international cooperation comparable to COVID-19 measures.' increase.

Mami Mizutori , Special Representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations (in charge of disaster risk reduction) and Director of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, said in a statement, 'We will further work to build a multilateral system to deal with inequality while preparing for the next crisis. We have to work hard. Whether it's a new pandemic, climate change or conflict, we have the opportunity to learn from the last two years. If we can't, the SDGs It will roll out of our reach. '