What are the new challenges as the price of solar power generation is about the same level as coal-fired power generation?



The cost of solar power

has fallen sharply, and its 'price' is no longer an obstacle to the use of solar power. A new analysis of the cost competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation by a Chinese research team revealed that photovoltaic power generation has reached the point where it is as cost competitive as coal-fired power generation. The researchers show that the combination of solar power and storage systems could provide nearly half of the electricity needed in China in the mid-21st century.

Combined solar power and storage as cost-competitive and grid-compatible supply for China's future carbon-neutral electricity system | PNAS
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/42/e2103471118

China's solar power has reached price parity with coal | Ars Technica
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/10/the-shifting-economics-of-solar-power-in-china/

The good news is that the cost of solar power is falling globally, but it is also true that cost is not the only issue in using solar power. Since sunshine changes depending on the time and season, it is necessary to analyze the availability of sunshine by country / region. In the case of China, which is said to have a large land area, the northwestern region is the most suitable for solar power generation, but the population is concentrated in the southeast, and the 'best place for solar power generation' and the 'place that requires electricity' are separated. Therefore, there was a technical problem in the development of the power grid.

Based on the above issues, the research team will track various factors such as changes in technology, economy, solar resources, and power grid that will affect the performance of photovoltaic power generation from 2020 to 2060 in order to grasp the situation more clearly. I built a model to do. The model uses meteorological satellite data from the last six years and land use data at the time of the study to predict productivity across China.

The research team defined the word 'technical potential' as 'the amount of power generated when solar power is generated in all available places,' and first of all, the technical potential in China as of 2020. Has been shown to be below 100 petawatt hours. This is 13 times the energy demand in China. And, based on the fact that technology will continue to advance, the technical potential as of 2060 is predicted to be 150 petawatt hours. However, due to various challenges in actual land use, the average capacity factor is estimated to be 17.6%, which is lower than the value used in the forecast calculation.



Next, the research team calculated the 'profit brought to the solar power generation facility' in each region, taking into consideration the points such as initial cost, maintenance cost, and financing. As a result, it is believed that solar power generation has already reached the same level as coal-fired power generation as of 2020.

However, as mentioned above, there are geographical issues in China, so storage for storage is indispensable for the actual use of solar power generation. For this reason, the research team predicted future battery prices and investigated how they would affect overall PV prices.

As a result of the survey, it was shown that it will be possible to supply electricity at 5.2 petawatt hours at a price lower than coal-fired power generation at a total price of solar power generation + storage around 2030. The total power consumption in 2020 is 7.5 petawatt hours, and it is expected that the consumption will increase in the future. It is thought that it will rise from 5.2 petawatt hours to 7.2 petawatt hours by 2060, but since demand is also increasing by that time, it is appropriate to cover about 40% of the expected power demand with solar power generation + storage. And that.



On the other hand, it has been pointed out that the above scenario involves major challenges. To do the above with lithium-ion battery technology, China alone would use 36% of the world's cobalt reserves. For this reason, the development of new battery technology is essential.

China has a goal of achieving net zero by 2060. The prediction that 40% of electricity will be supplied by sunlight is significant, but it still shows that it is difficult to reach the target. For this reason, it is considered necessary to integrate not only solar power generation but also hydrogen power generation and power generation by next-generation nuclear reactors.

in Science, Posted by darkhorse_log