When will the pandemic of the new Corona end and return to its former daily life?
As the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) significantly changes our lives and behaviors, people want to know when they can return to their pre-pandemic life.
For scientists, path to COVID-19 endgame remains uncertain
https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2021/09/04/for-scientists-path-to-covid-19-endgame-remains-uncertain/
There are many views on when the COVID-19 pandemic will end, from 'ending in 2021' to 'spring of 2022, or ending in 2022' and 'ending a few years.' There will be no such thing. 'I really think the pandemic is coming to an end,' said Monica Gandhi, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of California, San Francisco, who made COVID-19 manageable in mid-October 2021. Medical professionals claim that they will get sick to the extent that the general public does not care, although they are concerned.
Gandhi's ideas are based on the fact that all pandemics of respiratory viruses that have occurred so far have ended with the acquisition of immunity through vaccination and natural infections. Of course, the virus may evade immunity by mutation, but it is said that rapid changes lead to weakening of the virus itself , and it is speculated that the delta strain that is rampant at the time of writing the article is the peak of the new coronavirus. It is said that it is doing.
Meanwhile, Ezekiel Emanuel, a professor of medical ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania, says that the current situation where more than 1,000 people die and many children are hospitalized a day is not very normal. indicate. When Emmanuel predicted in March 2020 that 'it will normalize in November 2021', his friends said he was a pessimist, but at the time of writing the article, he will return to his pre-pandemic life. I think it will be in the spring of 2022 at the earliest, probably even further.
Experts said the end of the pandemic was 'a condition in which COVID-19 becomes one of the illnesses such as the common cold and the flu, which can sometimes develop or kill people, but is no longer a medical emergency.' I have a consensus. Based on this recognition, Professor Jay Batacharya, a medical and health economist at Stanford University, said that 'the emergency stage of COVID-19 is over' and that COVID-19 is 'one of the diseases that affect people'. I insist that it should be treated as 'one'.
Batacharya's allegations are based on the fact that vaccination has a high probability of protecting against death from COVID-19 and has been successful in reducing hospitalizations and deaths in the elderly and people with underlying illnesses. It is said. 'We were very successful, and for me this is the end of the epidemic, because we can't take any further steps,' said Batachariya.
Although the new coronavirus will continue to mutate and sometimes seasonal and geographical clusters may occur, Batacharya points out that the increase or decrease in the number of cases should not be overwhelming. Mr. Batacharya is already ready to resume his pre-pandemic life, and although he wears a mask, he also traveled abroad to England during the summer vacation.
Gandhi, who claims that the Delta strain is the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, also claims that while COVID-19 will not disappear, the acquisition of immunity will reduce mortality and make it more like a cold or flu. doing. The spread of Delta stocks has spread anxiety among Americans, but the bigger problem is 'excessive fear' of pandemics.
'Democrats overestimate mortality and Republicans underestimate,' Gandhi said. Democrats who hesitate to resume pre-pandemic activities and Republicans who refuse to wear masks in crowded rooms have all accused them of hindering their return to pre-pandemic life.
Meanwhile, Julie Swan, a systems engineer at North Carolina State University who advised the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in
'Children infect each other, their families, and their communities.' 'The first step towards normalization is to vaccinate children at least five years old,' Swan said. I have. Scenarios for the end of the pandemic include 'most of the members are infected with the virus and immunized', 'thorough remote learning and wearing masks', and 'strong urban blockade', but the most preferable scenario is 'Thorough vaccination of children aged 5 to 11 years' is said.
Swan predicts that 10 years after the article was written, COVID-19 will become a flu-like illness that can kill people but not cause emergencies like this one. increase. In this case, hospitals are not overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, although sometimes COVID-19 cases increase in low-vaccination communities. Although Swan has already resumed domestic travel, he says he intends to avoid traveling abroad and parties until his child is vaccinated.
Batacharya argues that it is the responsibility of public health authorities to convince people to be vaccinated, with the message that 'vaccination can bring us back to pre-pandemic life.' Stanford University requires vaccinations for all parties on campus, and will resume face-to-face classes from the fall semester of 2021, and Mr. Batacharya is looking forward to seeing students.
On the other hand, Emmanuel of the University of Pennsylvania says he feels a little nervous about resuming face-to-face classes even if he is obliged to vaccinate and wear a mask. 'When COVID-19 looks like the flu, the medical system is working properly, and my friends don't ask,'What can I do to stay safe?'' Emmanuel said. He insisted that it was time to go back.
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