Research results that a certain proportion of people can mask the epidemic of new coronavirus infections
In Japan, 'masks' have been attracting attention since early on as a countermeasure against new coronavirus infectious disease (COVID-19), but it took a
A modeling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with'lock-down' in managing the COVID-19 pandemic | Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Covid-19 second wave could be prevented if 50% of people do this
The Cambridge University research team has published a study that uses a mathematical model to analyze the effects of masks. In the first model, the research team added only 'the proportion of people wearing a mask' and 'the efficacy of the mask', and in the second model, in addition to 'inhalation from the surface of the object, or via hands etc.' Taking into account the 'new coronavirus that infects from the mouth and mucous membranes ' , calculate the ' basic reproduction number (R0)' that is a measure of how much one infectious disease patient spreads the infectious disease. He asked how much of the total population would wear a mask to end the epidemic.
The research team changed the proportion of new coronavirus adsorbed by the mask variously, while 'the infected person wears the mask only after the appearance of symptoms' 'A certain proportion (50%, 75%, 100%) of people always wear the mask We examined the changes in fashion for each scenario of 'wearing.' As a result, in the scenario of 'wearing a mask only after the onset of symptoms', R0 was found to be less than half if 95% or more of people wear the mask. On the other hand, in the scenario 'a certain percentage of people always wear a mask', assuming that R0 of the new coronavirus without a mask is 2.2, the fashion will spread if 50% of the total population wears a mask. In fact, if R0 is 4 when not wearing it, the result is that 75% of people wear a mask and the fashion does not spread. From this result, the research team explains, 'Wearing a mask at all times has the effect of reducing the infectivity by a factor of two compared to wearing a mask only after the onset of symptoms.'
Also, even if a mask with a low virus adsorption effect such as a homemade mask is used, if the proportion of wearers is high, the infection rate will drop dramatically.
From the results, the research team argues that a combination of lockdown and 100% wear of the mask would dramatically slow the pace of the initial epidemic. Noting that Scotland is the only country in Europe or the United States that recommends wearing masks, appealing to encourage citizens to wear masks to stop the second wave of COVID-19 It was.
'The mask may be particularly useful in developing countries, where there are few options to prevent the spread of infection,' said Richard Statt, the first author of the paper.
in Science, Posted by log1k_iy