Apr 28, 2020 06:00:00

Warning that 'crisis of human destruction' more than new coronavirus can occur

It is a pandemic of a new type of coronavirus infection (COVID-19) that is in turmoil all over the world, but eventually effective treatments and vaccines were developed, it took time and permanent changes in lifestyle habits If things happen, people's lives are likely to settle down. Meanwhile, Oxford University philosopher

Toby Ord argues that the COVID-19 pandemic is a great opportunity to think about the coming crisis of human destruction.

What if Covid-19 isn't our biggest threat? | Science | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/apr/26/what-if-covid-19-isnt-our-biggest-threat

Those who have experienced the COVID-19 pandemic should think about how this pandemic will affect the future and what international efforts will be made to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. I can. Thus, humans are good at estimating the likelihood of future events from recent experiences that they remember, but they are not good at thinking about unprecedented potential catastrophes.

In his book

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Aude said, 'Even if experts estimate that an unprecedented event is quite likely, we do It's hard to believe the expert's guess until you see. ” This global expansion of the new coronavirus is exactly the case for this example.

Many expert scientists are convinced that a powerful virus will spread worldwide in the near future, and have occasionally warned. Even if you are not an infectious disease expert, Microsoft founder Bill Gates said in a TED speech in 2015, `` If more than 10 million people will die in the next few decades, it will be more infectious than war. It was probably caused by the virus. 'Some people knew about the dangers of a pandemic. However, despite being repeatedly warned of viral pandemics, many people have barely considered the dangers of pandemics.

You can read the full story of what Gates said in 2015 in the article below.

A movie released in 2015 that Bill Gates talks `` If the next epidemic outbreak comes ''-GIGAZINE

Mr. Ord said that human beings 'existential risks' such as 'human civilization collapses at an irreversible level and surviving human life returns to prehistoric levels' or 'human species are destroyed'. One of the few researchers to focus on. Existential risks include a wide range of contents such as 'stellar explosion', 'malicious virus epidemic', 'super volcanic eruption', 'artificial intelligence runaway', but most citizens, governments, and other sciences. Said that they are ignoring these existential risks.

In the book ' Apocalypse How ?: Technology and the Threat of Disaster, ' British politician Oliver Letwin also urged the government to urgently pay attention to everyday issues such as trade agreements, and to make society a machine. It mentions that future virtual challenges such as hijacking will be postponed. However, Mr. Ord points out that the situation in which people are experiencing a global pandemic is an excellent opportunity to think about 'what can be done to prevent future human crises.' Now is the time to think about existential risks that have been overlooked and seek ways to avoid an apocalyptic future.

Mr. Aude thinks that 'if a human makes the right decision, he will have unimaginable prosperity in the next century,' while he thinks that if he makes the wrong decision, he will follow the same path of extinction as Dodo and dinosaurs. I am. The risk of the Earth's destruction due to supernova explosions, eruptions of supervolcanoes, and the outflow of deadly artificial viruses is not so high considering each one, but it is not unlikely if all the possible risks are added together. That. Mr. Aude estimates that existential risk may become a reality in the 21st century, 'one sixth', arguing that 'the 21st century is the same situation as Russian roulette betting human destruction'. I am.

In addition, it seems that the scenario that human beings are destroyed in the 21st century with a probability of 1/6 is relatively modest, considering the case where humans have some intention to deal with threats . If human beings seriously deal with many existing risks with interest, it seems that the risk will be reduced to 100 times, but completely overlook the increasing threat in fields such as biotechnology and artificial intelligence. That said, the risk of human destruction rises to one-third.

Martin Reese , a British astrophysicist and former president of the Royal Society , is one of the researchers who has been worried about the impending danger of human destruction. “I'm worried. Our world is interconnected, and the worst potential catastrophes can cause unprecedented damage, but too many people threaten this threat. Is denied. ” Reese cites the maxim that 'the unfamiliar is not the same as the impossible', adding that the fact that people are not paying attention to existential risk is also a problem.

Lettwin warns of excessive reliance on the Internet and satellite systems, suggesting that catastrophic damage could spread worldwide by relying on integrated networks for much of society . Also, Mr. Aude does not think that cyber attacks and naturally occurring pathogens pose a serious existential risk, but the pathogens and biological weapons studied at the Institute for Biological Research are used in agriculture, transportation, trade, urban areas. He pointed out that it may lead to the destruction of human beings in the present age when factors such as the population density in the country overlap.

In this regard, Mr. Ord said, 'Human society is so indifferent to existential risks that almost no attempt has been made to avoid them.' For example, the budget allocated to the Biological Weapons Convention for the purpose of regulating biological weapons is only 1.4 million euros per year (about 160 million yen), which is less than the average annual sales of one McDonald's house. It is also low. And although he doesn't know the exact amount, he believes that advanced technology will spend less money on efforts to keep people from dying than annual ice cream sales.

Aude is by no means a pessimist and believes that human beings can take constructive action to adequately mitigate existential risk. Human beings are physically adolescents with a lack of foresight and patience, and they can destroy themselves with their own power until they reach maturity, he said. Therefore, humans need to slow down the pace of technology development and understand the true meaning of the technology they are developing.

Also, it is in future generations that will be born later that the existential risk left untouched by modern humans will become a big issue. Mr. Aude pointed out that our descendants are in the sense of colonized people, saying that they have no political right and no direct influence, and they are born. We argue that humans should deepen their moral understanding for generations. It seems that Mr. Aude thinks that the biggest threat is the existence of nuclear weapons, and although the number of nuclear weapons that can be used since the end of the Cold War has greatly decreased, the new strategic weapons reduction treaty that came into effect in 2011 is updated And appealed that we should continue to reduce nuclear weapons.

Global understanding and agreement is needed to avoid existential risks of human destruction, but while the economic system is global, the political system is still fragmented by state or federation . It is unclear whether the new coronavirus epidemic will connect the world or accelerate fragmentation, but it is necessary to make unified decisions around the world to avoid existential risks.