It becomes like this when visualizing how much testing at the airport can prevent and delay the epidemic of the new coronavirus
Countries are making various efforts to prevent the pandemic of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), but measures are extremely difficult due to the lack of data on SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile, international health experts have
Effectiveness of airport-based interventions at detecting travelers and delaying an outbreak of COVID-19
https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/traveller-screening
Effectiveness of airport-based interventions at detecting travelers and delaying an outbreak of COVID-19
https://cmmid.github.io/
MedRxiv Interventions targeting air travelers early in the pandemic may delay local outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 |
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022426v2
The published page looks like this. The slider on the left side of the screen and how much screening can find infected travelers on the right side.
The slider on the left of the screen is 'Flight time', 'Departure inspection accuracy', and 'Immigration inspection accuracy' from the top.
The pathogen is designated as `` SARS-CoV-2 '', the period from infection to symptoms (average) is `` 5.2 days '', the period from infection to symptoms (dispersion) is `` 4.1 days '', infection The period (average) from hospitalization to hospitalization is 9.1 days, the period from infection to hospitalization (variance) is 14.7 days, and the proportion of asymptomatic patients is 17%.
For example, if the flight time is 13 hours and the accuracy of immigration and immigration inspections is 86%, 45 out of 100 infected people will be detected by immigration inspection (green), and those who will have serious symptoms during flight (Pink) has 0 people, immigration screening has detected 9 (blue), and undetected has 46.
The impact of flight time is small, but if the flight time is reduced from 12 hours to 1 hour, the number of people detected at immigration screening will decrease by three, and the number of undetected people will increase accordingly.
On the other hand, as the flight time increases, some people become more sick on the plane, and more people are infected on the plane.
Without immigration inspections, the number of people detected on airplanes increased to four. Even if screening at the time of departure is weak, most infected people will be detected at the time of immigration inspection, but the number of undetected cases will increase from 45 to 51.
Even if the accuracy of the immigration inspection increases from 86% to 100%, the final number of undetected persons will be 45, so there is no significant effect.
On the other hand, if no immigration tests are performed, 54 people will be undetected, and more people will enter the country without detection of infection than if no immigration tests were performed.
In addition, the 'Delaying an outreak' tab allows you to see how screening at the airport can delay
From the top, the slider on the left side of the screen is `` flight time '' `` accuracy of immigration inspection '' `` accuracy of immigration inspection '' `` infected traveler arriving in a week '' `` effect of traveler
12 hours of flight time, 86% accuracy of immigration and immigration inspections, 1 person infected per week, 50% sensitizing effect, 1.4-3.9 basic reproduction, variance 0.54 If you like this. The probability of delaying an outbreak by at least 21 days is 97.5%, and the probability of delaying an outbreak by 81 days is 75%.
Without an immigration inspection, the outbreak could be delayed by 97.5% to 18 days, and the outbreak could be delayed by 75% to 58 days.
Without immigration inspection, the outbreak can be delayed with a probability of 97.5% on '16 days', the outbreak can be delayed with a probability of 75% on '49 days', the impact will be the departure inspection Is larger than the presence or absence.
Without any screening, the outbreak can be delayed with a 7.5% probability of only '6 days', and the outbreak can be delayed with a 75% probability of '14 days'.
If you set 'Number of infected people per week' from 1 to 10, it looks like this. Even though immigration and immigration inspections were conducted well, it was shown that it would be much more difficult to gain time before an outbreak if there were a large number of travelers.
This website was created by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), a research university operated by the University of London, a leader in international health and tropical medicine. The website data is based on an unreviewed article published February 13, 2020, which states, `` If the number of travelers infected with SARS-CoV-2 is very small, airport The combination of testing and sensitization of travelers can delay outbreaks in countries that have not yet been affected. '
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