Research results that `` luck '' tends to be confused with `` technology '' and overestimated in sports and workplace evaluation



An analysis of professional sports published in 2017 reveals that “soccer games are more sensitive to luck than basketball and tennis”. Statistical studies on over 10,000 shots in the soccer game showed that “luck” and “technology” are easily confused.

Fooled by Performance Randomness: Overrewarding Luck | The Review of Economics and Statistics | MIT Press Journals

Evaluation bias muddying performance perceptions

Lionel Page, a professor of economics at the Sydney Institute of Technology business school in Australia, examined the data of professional soccer matches held in Europe, and over 10,000 shots and shots that reached the goal post Was analyzed. As a result, there was no significant difference in the average performance in the subsequent games between “the player who decided the shot that scored after entering the goal” and “the player who did not score” .



From this, Mr. Page said, 'I knew that whether or not the shot that reached the goal post would lead to a score was more dependent on the skill of the player.'

However, the players who scored the goal were often given long hours of play by the manager in the subsequent games, and were highly evaluated by journalists and soccer fans. This trend was especially noticeable when the team was likely to win by scoring, as the scoring affected the game.

“The trend may apply to business and other areas, given that luck has an excessive impact on the ratings and ratings of football players,” said Page. I pointed out that luck can have an excessive influence on evaluation even in team sports other than soccer and teamwork in companies.

by nd3000

According to Page, the judgment of the boss and decision-maker in the workplace is often “ result bias ”. Outcome bias is a kind of cognitive bias that “even if the result is an accidental product, good results are given good evaluation”. In the business world, outcomes are more important than courses, so performance-based is often adopted, but as you can see from the case of 'the player who scored the goal was given a long play time' If you get good results, you may be given a chance to achieve further results.

Based on these findings, Mr. Page said, “There is a high probability that someone's success is a significant factor in luck, or if someone did not succeed, there was a reason why that person could not do anything. It ’s important to keep in mind that there is a possibility, ”he said, and expressed his view that people should not be evaluated only by looking at the results.

in Note, Posted by log1l_ks