Research results that can predict an increase in terrorist attacks based on silver price fluctuations


by

kschneider2991

Attacks by terrorism have a great impact on society and threaten people's lives both directly and indirectly. A study to predict such terrorist attacks based on 'silver price fluctuation' was announced, and Ben Marrow , who studies financial economics, explains the contents of the research.

Terrorism Financing, Recruitment and Attacks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment by Nicola Limodio :: SSRN
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3384109




The paper by Marrow is written by Nicola Limodio , Associate Professor of Finance at Bocconi University of Commerce, Italy, entitled “ Terrorist Finance, Recruitment and Attack ”. This paper, claiming that “the fluctuations in the international price of silver can predict the probability of a terrorist attack,” was presented at the Political Economy of Finance conference in Chicago.

Pakistan has a well-established Islamic state, and the tax system incorporates the idea of Zakat , one of the five elements imposed on Islamic believers. Zakat obligates 2.5% of Muslim property to donate for poverty. In Pakistan, the Zakat Council , under the Ministry of Religion , is 2.5% from the bank account of wealthy people with a certain level of wealth. Is collected as a tax.

Taxation by Zakat will be made on 'persons with assets worth 612.32 grams in terms of silver'. If we convert 612.32 grams of silver at the price at the time of writing the article, it is about 43,000 yen. Of course, this amount fluctuates as the price of silver rises and falls, so the Pakistani government refers to the price of silver at the time of collection and charges 2.5% for all those who exceed the corresponding threshold. The


by

stevepb

If the silver price at the time zakat is collected is high, there will be a 'person who happens to be tax-free when it is taxed 2.5% in normal years'. According to the spirit of Islam, these people often donate their increased disposable income personally to charities.

In the graph below, the horizontal axis shows the price of silver, and the vertical axis shows the donation amount to the charity. You can see that as the price of silver has risen and more people have escaped taxation, the amount of donations has also increased.



Some of the assets donated in this way will go to charities run by terrorists, whether intended or not. Limodio thought that this additional fund would allow terrorist groups to do more terrorist attacks than usual. In other words, “the price of silver rises → the number of people who escaped taxation due to an increase in the standard amount of Zakat → increased donations to charitable organizations → as a result the funds of terrorist organizations will increase → terrorist attacks increase” A hypothesis was made.

The duty to pay tax by Zakat is imposed only on Islamic

Sunni , and the tax is collected on the first day of Ramadan (fasting month) . Therefore, it is predicted that Sunni people donate by avoiding Zakat taxation, and donations will be made during Ramadan. From these points, Limodio focused on the price of silver and the attacks of Sunni terrorist organizations that occurred in Pakistan during Ramadan.

In the graph below, the blue line shows the price of silver, and the red line shows which Sunni or Shia terrorist attacks were relatively common. The higher the red line is, the more Sunni terrorist attacks are, and there is a tendency for Sunni terrorist attacks to increase as the price of silver rises.



Marrow commented on Limodio's paper as 'incredible'.

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