Graph showing the average lifetime of Apple products will be released

ByBlake Patterson

It is difficult to accurately predict the life expectancy of products, not only Apple products, but after the warranty period, we must face risks of failure. If you can predict product life in advance, you may be able to plan a replacement in advance, but accurate prediction of lifetime is not that easy. However, Asymco analyst Horace Deweyu said that it is possible to predict the average life expectancy of Apple products to some extent and to make planned exchange possible.

Determining The Average Apple Device Lifespan | Asymco
http://www.asymco.com/2018/03/01/determining-the-average-apple-device-lifespan/

According to Mr. Dedew, the lifetime tendency of Apple products is said to be able to be read if you know the cumulative device sales volume and the current usage. In the graphs below, the cumulative sales volume is shown on the vertical axis and the horizontal axis shows the time axis, which shows the unit sales from the 2nd quarter of 2007. The number of units to be used at each quarter is set to "Active" It is represented by a red circle and the transition of the number used is indicated by a gray curve.


When examining the average life expectancy of the device in the second quarter of 2013, we subtract the number of used devices from the total number of units sold at a certain time (here, the fourth quarter of 2017) with respect to the total number of units sold in 2013 If the value is the same or larger, the sales terminal in the second quarter of 2013 corresponds to the average life expectancy. In other words, devices purchased in the second quarter of 2013 will have an average life expectancy within the period from the third quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2017.


It is said that the terminals included in the "number of terminals" in this graph cover not only the iPhone but also all Apple products such as iPad and MacBook, so information on sales volume isAppleIt is available because it is reported periodically in the settlement direction etc. In addition, information on the number of uses is not disclosed, but another Mr. Dedewarticleaccording to,Logistic functionBy using the parameter devised by Mr. Dedew, we can predict the number of units to be used with high accuracy. By using this value, it is said that anyone can predict the average life expectancy of Apple products.