Experts warn that whether the next three years will be better to save humanity from climate change


United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)Secretary General Christiana Figueres andIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(ICC)Hans Joachim Schellnhuber et al. Warn that what to do in the next three years will become very important to prevent our lives from being severely affected by global warming and climate change did. If we do not tackle the problem in the past three years, it will be impossible to prevent the level of climate change that will endanger people without giving a big blow to the economy, so that the government, the private enterprise, the general public, the scientist We are calling for them to become one.

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The "next three years" that scientists appeal indicates the period until 2020 when global warming countermeasures established by the Paris Agreement will begin. Given the withdrawal of the Paris Agreement in the United States, "the next three years" is important in terms of politics and economics, but it also has an important meaning in the physical sense. It was announced in April 2017Carbon trackerAccording to the report, it is almost impossible to achieve the goal stipulated by the Paris Agreement after 2020, if carbon dioxide emissions have risen or remain unchanged in the past 3 years. Likewise, it was adopted in 2015Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)The possibility that realization can be realized also becomes small.

ByErik de Haan

Mr. Figueres says, "We are at the doorstep that determines whether we can lower carbon dioxide emissions by 2020." "This challenge is a challenge for local governments in the United States and all levels outside the US Three positions of administrative organizations and individuals need to work with great flexibility to the task The opportunities given to us over the next three years are unparalleled in history, I talked.

Also, Schellnhuber says "The numbers are very clear - if the world is not healed in the next few years, we will have a fatal injury due to our negligence."

In the Paris Agreement that came into force in 2016, the goal was to "pursue efforts to keep the average temperature rise of the world before the industrial revolution sufficiently lower than 2 degrees and keep it to 1.5 degrees", but according to research, It is predicted that this "1.5 degrees" goal can not be achieved already. On the contrary, it is doubtful whether the goal of "twice" can be realized.

As shown in the graph below, if carbon dioxide emissions are reduced with peaks in 2016, it is estimated that it is possible to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to zero over 25 years with minimal impact on the economy It was. However, if carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase until 2025, it is considered impossible to reduce emissions in a short period of time unless significant economic losses are created. If the bifurcation point that "can reduce carbon dioxide emissions to zero without hurting the economy" is "2020" and if we can lower emissions that are currently leveling off in the next three years' efforts , We can cope with the climate change problem without economic hit.

It has been confirmed that the amount of coal fuel used is decreasing even in China, India, the United States and other countries, and with the progress of technology, the foundation for a mechanism to permanently reduce carbon dioxide emissions is created, so far Researchers pointed out that carbon dioxide emissions, which had been on an upward trend, are decreasing.

From 2014 to 2016, the temperature of the earth has recorded the highest ever for the third consecutive year, but on the other hand, the carbon dioxide emissions have remained unchanged over the past three years, and the level of carbon dioxide has risen for decades Considering what had been continuing, it can be said that the efforts of each country were successful.

Obviously the temperature of the earth has recorded the highest ever in 3 consecutive years - GIGAZINE

In addition, Professor Gail Whiteman of the University of Lancaster said, "Science emphasizes the urgency of our challenge, but equally important is that economic, technical and social analyzes, we are going to collect this challenge collectively It is shown that it can survive. "

Greenhouse gases emitted in the past two centuries slowly affected the global environment, but the changes that will occur will be rapid. "Fortunately, the earth's resilience has been high for the past 100 years, it has relieved our abusive act, but we have reached the end of this era Global CO2 We must reduce emissions quickly and avoid uncontrollable results ", says Johan Rockstrom, an environmentalist at the Stockholm Resilience Center.

Researchers called on administrative organizations and leaders of private enterprises "There is no impossible, it is a matter of attitude," and said, "To eliminate the need for the United States to achieve the goal of the Paris agreement, Let's continue our efforts. "

in Science, Posted by darkhorse_log