A movie to explain in animation about the wave of automation that is going to rush to the world

Research and survey results that the machine and technology will advance in line with human beings in the future can be talked about frequently as advances of machinery and technology progress. "Occupation that may be automated by machine in the future"And the like, a lot of research institutes and research results have to pick up this topic but, Kurzgesagt us to explain the various events in the animation movies, it has published a movie about the wave of automation surging to modern.

The Rise of the Machines - Why Automation is Different this Time - YouTube


How long does it take for a machine to perform a better job than a human being?



In the past, "automation" was a word that refers to a machine that repeatedly performs simple tasks in a factory.


However, now the wave of automation is getting on various things such as airplane and cancer diagnosis, stock trading and so on.


According to a survey in 2013, it seems that nearly half of American work can be automated over the next 20 years. But what is the difference between automation that has existed for decades and what is currently happening in automation?


First of all on past innovation.


Many people have improved productivity through various innovations.



By improving productivity, you will be able to create more things and services with the same labor force.



As a result of this, many jobs are gone, but the population will increase at a faster rate and a new job will be born.


Innovation improves productivity ... ....


Although it reduces existing occupations ... ...


More new jobs are born. With this, the living standard of the majority of people improved.


We humankind have been living in agriculture for a long time.


Following the industrial revolution, humanity will shift from primary industry such as agriculture to secondary industry.


And by the wave of automation, humans will advance into service industry.


Furthermore, the time has passed and we are entering the information age as far as the present age. By entering the information age it is far faster than ever, and it is certain that human work will be superseded by machines.


Still Innovation will bring salvation to humanity as usual?


In 1979, General Motors hired over 800,000 workers and produced about 11 billion dollars. In contrast, Google in 2012 has only 58,000 people and is generating about 14 billion dollars.


There is also a problem that the old industry is exhausted. For example, in the case of a car, it has developed into a big industry in 100 years from the birth, and now it is a fact that it is indispensable as an infrastructure ... ...


It has almost reached completion, and even if new innovation happens, it will be impossible to produce as much work as ever.


"Electric cars", the next step in the automotive industry, are also great, but we can not create millions of new jobs as we have hitherto done.


So how about the internet?


Some engineers insist that the Internet is equivalent to electricity innovation.


However, in order to proceed with this comparison, we need to see how modern innovation differs from that of the past.


Although the Internet has created a lot of employment, it can not be said that it created just a supplement to the employment that disappeared due to population growth and the appearance of the Internet.


In 2004, the rental video chainBlock busterProduced 84,000 employees and income of $ 6 billion.


However, in 2016 Netflix, an Internet streaming service, has generated $ 9 billion in revenue, but has only created 4,500 jobs.


Also, this movie is being createdKurzgesagtAlthough it is being played millions of times around the world, it is said that it is created by 12 full-time employees.


However, in the case of TV, more employment was necessary.


In other words, innovation in the information age may not be enough to create new employment.


In addition, new technologies of the next generation are also appearing.


In the first place, the evolution of mankind is based on division of labor, it is differentiated and specialized in the history of thousands of years.


It is difficult to accomplish complicated tasks even at the present best machine ... ...


It is very suitable for doing narrowly defined work.


Also, it has become apparent that there are parts that can be delegated to machines by classifying them finely even in complicated tasks.


And, in fact, the machine has evolved to a stage where it is possible to subdivide complicated tasks into those that can be automated.


Digital equipment will be able to analyze data by machine learning and obtain information and skills.



It is now possible to learn machines independently.


Machine learning has expanded its possibilities in recent years. Because humans are collecting data on everything.


All data on behavior / weather pattern, medical record, communication system, travel data, and even what we are doing at work place are collected ... ...


By combining these data with machine learning, it can be said that human gained a huge library to learn "how to improve things".


One example of such data collection and machine learning is software for project management provided by a software development company located in San Francisco for large enterprises. This software can play the role of mid-level manager.


Software firstly determines the tasks that can be automated and the work that people actually need.


Then allocate work to freelance via the internet ......


We will control the quality of work while tracking individual performance until the project is completed.


Although it seems that work is increasing in freelance thanks to this software ... ...


In fact, software tracks and learns freelance work ... ...


He said that he continues his learning so that the machine can do freelance work in the future.


The software will reduce costs by about 50% in the first year from introduction and by 25% in the second year. Of course this is just one example of automation occurring all over the world.


Machines or software superior to humans are produced in every field ... ...


It extends to everything from pharmacists, analysts, journalists, radiologists, bankers, cashiers and even cooks to burn hamburgers. Of course, these professions do not disappear in an instant, but it is obvious that the number of people who will accomplish these will gradually decline.


When innovation happens, simply replacing old work with a new job is not enough.


Because the population of the world continues to increase.


However, since 1973, the creation of new jobs in the US is on the contraction trend.


For the first ten years of the 21st century, the total amount of employment did not increase for the first time in the past. In the United States, it seems necessary to create 150,000 new jobs per month in order to keep up with the population increase, but new employment itself continues to decrease.


This has also begun to adversely affect people's living standards. In the past, new employment was born as productivity improved, but the current figures convey totally different stories.


In 1998, American workers totaled 194 billion hours worked. In 2013 that 15 years later, productivity has increased by 42%.


However, the total working hours of American workers has not changed since 194 billion hours.


What this means is that although productivity has improved, a lot of new business has been born and the population has also increased by 40 million people, so there is no change in total working hours.


At the same time, the average wage of new graduates continues to decrease over the past 10 years in the United States, and about 40% of new graduates are to be forced to get a job that does not require a degree.


"Conclusion"


Productivity is different from human labor.


And it is necessary to remember that the nature of innovation in the information age is very different from what we have been.


The wave of automation that is happening right now is quite different from what we have done in the sense that machines actually do the work of human beings.


However, it is certain that the information age and automation have the potential to transform the human race society and lead to a huge opportunity to drastically reduce poverty and inequality.