The possibility that the United Nations forecast that "the number of births record the highest number in 2014" is incorrect

ByMeg hourihan

United NationsPredicts that "the number of births in the world of 2014 will reach 139 million, which will rewrite the record so far." However, Internet media "Vox"Brad Plumer, editor-in - chief, publishes the reasons that the United Nations' forecasts are likely to be incorrect.

World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision
http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm

The UN thinks we could hit peak births in 2014 - Vox
http://www.vox.com/2014/7/16/5909709/the-un-thinks-well-hit-peak-births-in-2014

The graph below shows what the United Nations is publishing and it shows the change in the number of births from 1940 to 2100. The number of births that declined in 2000 sharply increased until 2014 and recorded the highest number ever. It is predicted that it will gradually descend afterwards.


The United Nations has released itDocument, The number of births exceeded the number of deaths, the population explodedly increased, and it was predicted that by 2100 the current birthrate will increase from about 7.2 billion people to about 10 billion people. However, Mr. Plumer says, "I have no choice but to doubt the prediction of the United Nations," one of the reasons being that it is very difficult to accurately measure the number of people living in the world Is cited.

According to Plumer, the population of the world published by European and American institutions conducting an accurate census is up to 3% off the actual population. For example, in China, a woman is said to have raised about 1.2 children, but there are tens of millions of children who have not actually been birthed to comply with the one-child policyPointing outIt is being done. It is also very difficult to measure the exact population in the countries of the African continent, and the announcement of the United NationsPossibility of being wrongThere is also.

BySuper * Junk

Even though it is difficult to accurately grasp the current population, it is more difficult to predict the population of the future. Although the prediction of the population transition is greatly influenced by the birth rate, the birthrate may accompany unexpected changes, in fact the United Nations in fact, in 2011, predicts the population forecast for 2100 from 9 billion to 10 billion Fixed upward. The reason is that the birthrate in Africa has decreased as expected.

Deutsche Bank, one of them, is conducting demographics besides the United Nations, "One of the world's population reached 8.7 billion in 2055, the highest number ever recorded,"Prediction. Also, it is worth noting that the forecast for Deutsche Bank's birthrate forecast is different from what the United Nations predicted.

ByPaco CT

Many experts have pointed out that the population continues to increase due to serious food problems, but according to Plumer, the forecast announced by the United Nations is not necessarily correct and the actual population is higher than predicted We also have to prepare with consideration for the increase in number.