How does Lehman Brothers and AIG collapse, how will it affect the lives of the people in the future?
Due to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and A.I.G., what happened during the past few days, why it happened, and what does this collapse mean for others who live everyday? Economist Steven D. Levitt discussed with colleagues Doug Diamond and Anil Kashyap,Publish the state on the netDid.
Let's organize various information based on insightful and suggestive articles, and let's know what kind of influence it is due to this collapse.
Details are as below.
~ Table of Contents ~
■ What happened in the first place?
■ Why did this happen?
· Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the beginning and the epicenter
· To the end of Lehman who could not continue borrowing
· AIG that wrote a $ 57 billion insurance contract
■ Why did the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Reserve bailed out Lehman, but rescued Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and A.I.G.?
■ I am not working at Lehman or A.I.G. and I do not own bonds, but what should I be aware of?
Before the following story, understanding about "subprime loan" is necessary, so if you say "What is subprime loan", please read the following article first.
What is the cause of the rapid appreciation of the yen and the simultaneous weakening of the world over the world, what is the "subprime problem"? - GIGAZINE
After understanding the above content, it is the main line of this time.
■ What happened in the first place?
The series of riots starts on September 8 when the US Treasury DepartmentFannie MaeWhenFreddie MacIt will start from nationalization.
US Government, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under Government Control | Reuters
The total assets of these two companies are indeed over 5 trillion dollars (about 529 trillion yen), and these companies guarantee most debt (collateral, mortgage, mortgage) in the United States (to convert bonds) I was supporting.
The Ministry of Finance decided to supervise and supervise these two companies, which revealed that the US government recognizes that "the US mortgage market and its institutions are broken." It clearly revealed that it is a very bad situation.
And on September 15, the biggest bankruptcy filing in the history of the United States was made by Lehman Brothers. Lehman's assets were over $ 600 billion (about 63.5997 billion yen) and there were 25,000 employees. The big bankruptcy petition which was done before was World Bank Company's $ 100 billion dollars (about 10.5999 billion yen), so you can see how big the bankruptcy is.
On September 16 (Japan September 17) of the following day, the Federal Reserve Board conducted a bridge loan (Bridge Loan) to A.I.G., the world's largest insurance company. A.I.G. is well-known as a shirt and sponsor of the Manchester United Football Club and has assets of more than 1 trillion dollars (about 105 trillion yen) and over 100,000 employees worldwide. The Federal Reserve Bureau has the option to purchase up to 80% of the shares of A.I.G., and by gradually selling the asset over the next two years, A.I.G. will be contracted gradually.
■ Why did this happen?
What is common to all three cases is that "we lost the ability to raise funds." But the reason is different in each case.
· Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the beginning and the epicenter
These two companies are in a very unique position, and it is a point that it was necessary measures to support the housing market. What kind of company it is easy to understand when reading the following article.
Fannie Mae Freddie Mac of the American version junior college - [About About Money] All About
Because the bank securitized the mortgage and sold it to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae also issued new derivative products and corporate bonds based on that as principal, It was spreading to institutions. It is very complicated in its entirety, and it can be said that it is difficult to elucidate the substance.
The two companies were able to fund these guarantees by supporting guaranteed mortgages (stipulating that they met certain standards) and by issuing their debts. this is"Implicit government guarantee"Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were able to have more debts than regular companies. However, in factThere is no government guaranteeThat's the point. Despite that, I can tell how much credit was it by reading the following. First off from Fannie Mae.
Fannie Mae (FNMA = Federal National Mortgage Association) [Fannie Mae] - Nomura Securities
It is a government-affiliated financial institution established in 1938 under US law. It was privatized in 1968 and shares were listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 1970.
Like Ginnie Mae, it has not received public guarantee from the US federal government, but it keeps its creditworthiness following government bonds as government agency bonds.
Because we purchased mortgage loans directly from private financial institutions and securitized them, they suffered from the influence related to that subprime loan as well. Let's see Freddie Mac next.
Freddie Mac (FHLMC = Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) (Freddie Mac) - Nomura Securities
It is a private company listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the Pacific Securities Exchange, which shares are not under government investment.
Like Ginnie Mae, it has not received public guarantee from the US federal government, but it keeps its creditworthiness following government bonds as government agency bonds.
This is also characterized by "retaining creditworthiness following US Treasury bonds", it purchased mortgage loans directly from private financial institutions and securitized.
In short, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were believed to be "financial institutions guaranteeing implicit warranties by the U.S. government", so those who have strong creditworthiness and doubt the credibility of the securities issued by the two companies, There was not even ... ....
So, despite the fact that the two companies are in principle supposed to use the government guarantee to reduce the housing loan cost of the homeowner, in principle, the mortgages by private financial institutions We used a method to squeeze funds from the market and make profits.
Many companies and foreign governments regarded Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae's debt (bonds) as substitutes for US Treasury bonds, and enthusiastically challenged it and seized it. As a result of this, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae began to deviate significantly from their core business and started to purchase mortgage-backed mortgage-backed securities (mortgage-backed securities) that normally do not meet the criteria using the raised funds .
Mortgage backed by real estate - Wikipedia
Government agencies such as Ginnie Mae (Federal Government Mortgage Association), Fannie Mae (Federal Residential Mortgage Corporation) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Mortgage Bank) occupy a large share in the United States. For Ginnie Mae, which was established through a wholly owned investment by the government and has full government guarantees, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are private listed companies,There is no explicit government guaranteeHowever, as a housing policy support organization, preferential measures have been takenImplicit government guaranteeAnd the mortgage-backed securities issued by these institutions have creditworthiness after government bonds.
This became what is called "subprime" or "subprime loan". As for mortgage-backed securities at this time, it is easy to understand by reading the following commentary.
Please tell me about mortgage-backed securities. - Yahoo! Chiebukuro
And, last year, it was discovered that these companies' own funds were actually less than expected, and it became clear that it was not enough to compensate for the mortgage loss of these secondary items. If these securities default to defaults, that is, "defaults", the possibility exists that the debts spread out in large quantities and held by financial institutions and so on collapsed at once, resulting in ridicule That is why.
Therefore, the US Treasury Department announced that the government will explicitly guarantee these liabilities ... .... This explanation in the following reply sentence is very concise and easy to understand.
Subprime, Nikkei Stock Average - OK Wave
Until now, the GSE was thought to be a financial institution that the US government guarantees tacit implicitly, but it is also a fact that it has been a problem for a few years ago that the position is not clear. Therefore, due to the plummeting stock prices of Fannie and Freddie this time,In fact it led to anxiety that implicit warranty might not be a real guaranteeIn the end, the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, GSEIn a certain meaning that it will never fail, gave "explicit guarantee"It is in a state that has managed to keep down the decline in US stock price.
However, the problem did not stop here. The reason is the business "Securitization" that both companies did.
Asking questions: Why is the impact of subprime big? = Answer · Takayuki Sakai - Everyday jp (Mainichi Newspaper)
Q Why are financial institutions other than the US affected by the subprime problem?
"Securitization" which sells receivables of A loan to small investors and sells to investors advanced, and it was sold all over the world. Securities companies and investment banks bought mortgage loans from banks, etc., and securities were distributed and sold using the interest income obtained by the loan and the repayment of the principal as resources. When the US housing market was booming, it was purchased by financial institutions around the world as leading financial instruments, but since the price of the securities declined sharply after the housing price of the US turned down, It has spread.
The point is the last "The loss spread to the financial institution it possessesOne sentence. That end will directly hit Lehman.
· To the end of Lehman who could not continue borrowing
In order to raise funds for real estate investments, bonds, government bonds and financial assets, Lehman has rolled at least 100 billion dollars (about 10.5 trillion yen) each month. Monitoring those investments is difficult for the credit of call funds and the borrower, Lehman, can quickly change the risk on the balance sheet, so the lessor has decided to choose short-term financing. This itself was a proper action for Lehman or all investment banks, and short-term finance was not an accident.
However, for months, short sellers (gymnasts) were convinced that Lehman's real estate losses were much greater than they recognized. Including Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae's losses, more bad materials on the real estate market emerged and this idea spread to the market. As a result, Lehman's borrowing costs have increased and Lehman's stock price has declined steadily. And as a result of downgrading the credit rating against Lehman, I was worried about the future credit situation becoming more tight, and Lehman 's credit rating gradually declined. It got into a vicious circle that the credit rating gets worse as the credit rating falls and the credit rating is expected to deteriorate if the cash position is expected to deteriorate.
Looking at the recent trends in Lehman's rating, you can see how Lehman gradually catches up. Let's look at the date and time and the contents of that heading in order.
March 18th, 2008 03:12
Steadily reduce Lehman and Jefferies outlook = Moody's | Money News | Latest economic news | Reuters
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March 24, 2008 07:17
U.S. Goldman and Lehman's rating outlook "negative" = S & P | Business | Reuters
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2008-04-02 09:23
Reduce Lehman's rating outlook to "negative" = Fitch | Business | Reuters
Fitch said he expressed concern that "Lehman is shrinking its exposures throughout 2008, due to the lack of active securitization markets, profits may decrease due to future valuation changes and realized losses."
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2008 年 06 月 09 日 21:25
Rejected the forecast of US Lehman negatively and received a loss forecast = Moody's | Money News | Corporate performance / rating | Reuters
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06/10/2008 03: 30
Riermann
Movement told that Lehman announced the prospect of recording a huge loss in the second and fourth quarter.
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2008-06-14 08: 21
Lehman Brothers
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2008-06-17 08:17
UPDATE 2: Riermann US
Lehman's stock price was $ 1.57 higher at $ 27.38 afternoon on 16 afternoon, still well below the book value of $ 32.95. This indicates that investors anticipate further valuation losses.
The company's mortgage, real estate assets and asset-backed securities (ABS) are over $ 60 billion, well above net worth.
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July 18, 2008 09: 59
Lehman Brothers
Long-term debt downgrades reflect Moody's projection that Lehman's commercial and residential mortgage write-downs will rise.
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July 28, 2008 22:38
Riermann
Merrill Lynch will record an additional valuation loss of $ 2.5 billion related to mortgage loans as third-quarter settlement of Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEH.N: stock price, corporate information, report) is in deficit It is clear that the possibility exists.
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2008-08-05 08: 56
Retransmission: US Lehman
However, there are few options for Lehman with mortgage-related assets worth about $ 65 billion.
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2008-08-26 07: 08
Possibility of selling up to 469 billion dollars at MBS downgrade = Lehman | Reuters
Lehman estimates that commercial banks own Triple A-rated non-governmental MBS of $ 380 billion, of which $ 110 billion is at risk. Foreign investors' holdings are 413 billion dollars, of which 118 billion are at risk.
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September 10, 2008 08: 07
Riermann
The stock price of Lehman fell more than 40% on the rumor that there was a possibility that investment negotiations with the Korea Industrial Bank were canceled.
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September 10, 2008 16: 30
Standard & amp; Poors - Lehman Brothers is designated as "credit watch" in downgrade direction
Standard & Poor's announced on 9th, "Credit Watch" in a direction to lower long-term and short-term counterparty rating of Lehman Brothers Holdings and individual debt rating (including Samurai bonds) and the ratings of all its affiliates Designated. Based on the increase in uncertainty as to whether the company can procure additional capital after the company's stock price plunge in recent days. Although there is a possibility that the rating will eventually be deferred, we can not deny the possibility of downgrading beyond one notch (stage) at this stage.
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September 11th 2008 06: 29
Reduced Lehman's long-term rating = DBRS | Reuters.co.jp
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September 11, 2008 07:17
Riermann
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September 11, 2008 09: 07
Riermann
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September 11, 2008
Riemann need to sell majority shares and sell for rating maintenance Moody's: NBonline (Nikkei Business Online)
Moody's Investors Service said on Wednesday that Lehman Brothers Inc. would not be able to avoid downgrading bonds unless it sold majority shares of the main body or conduct transactions such as selling.
And since September 15, Lehman collapsed, I applied for bankruptcy law ...... As a matter of course, the rating of Lehman is decreasing at once.
U.S. Lehman: Moody's downgrade in 10 steps B3 - Fitch also to D
U.S. rating agency Moody's downgraded its ratings (senior notes) of investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings of the United States from investment grade A2 to speculative grade B3 by 10 steps at a stroke.
And this will jump to AIG.
· AIG that wrote a $ 57 billion insurance contract
In this way, it is necessary for AIG to pay $ 57 billion (about 6 trillion yen) of insurance money that was spent on losses on subprime loan related investment, and it is impossible for AIG to raise funds for payment It will be done. The core of AIG's insurance business is a contract called "credit default swap" (C. D. S.'s).
Financial collapse: Lehman Shock / Medium (Part 1) AIG treatment, "Notice in 2 years" Last notice - Everyday jp (Mainichi Newspaper)
AIG was in the position to lead a derivative (financial derivatives) market called "credit default swap (CDS)" that takes over losses when enterprise loans and securitized products are burned. The CDS has rapidly increased transactions among the world's largest financial institutions and investors, and the total is said to be between 60 trillion and 80 trillion dollars (about 6000 trillion to 8000 trillion yen).
This CDS itself was in good shape, but furthermore, when the housing market continued to fall, the possibility of further loss came up.
Therefore, rating agencies that see potential loss downgraded the debt of A.I.G. In order not to be a lower credit rating, A.I.G. Will be required to demonstrate that it had proper collateral to service insurance contracts. The estimate suggested that it would require approximately $ 15 billion (about 1.8 trillion yen) in immediate collateral. Another problem encountered by A.I.G. was that CDS defaulted (default) if it could not demonstrate collateral. If the CDS was defaulted, the other partners contracted with A.I.G. included provisions that "we will be able to claim prepayment of bonds". In other words, if it remains as it is, A.I.G. will need to pay all at once, so all the cash and what they have spilled out and the possibility of getting stuck out came out.
In addition to this Lehman case, other insurance contracts of $ 380 billion (about 40 trillion 262.7 billion yen) have been unresolved, of which 160 billion dollars (about 16 trillion 9527 Billions of yen) in total. These bonds were spread all over the world at the same level as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Furthermore, Pacific Investment Management Company, a US bond management company (PIMCO) Guaranteed the bonds of A.I.G. written CDS agreement.
As the sizes of these contracts are so huge and complexly intertwined, the Federal Reserve Board believes that the default by AIG will mess up the financial system, bankruptcy will spread, and companies will collapse one after another We judged and lent $ 85 billion (about 9 trillion yen) to AIG for collateral to guarantee the contract.
By looking at the following articles in order of these processes, you can see how much credit uncertainty occurred on the scale.
August 26, 2008 08: 00
US AIG's third-quarter forecasts a significant deficit = Credit Suisse | Business | Reuters
We estimate that the company's financial products are deficit of 6.5 billion dollars on a market price basis. In the past we expected a loss of $ 2.6 billion.
In the near future, the likelihood of a change in the rating clearly increased, and said that if Moody's and S & P both downgraded AIG down one notch, additional up to $ 13.3 billion of collateral could be required.
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September 06, 2008 00:48
AIG
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September 10, 2008 08:39
AIG
Concerns raised again that it may be pressed for new capital from the size of the exposure to the mortgage market.
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September 12th 2008 13:50
AIG, market value of life insurance industry falls from world leader | Reuters
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September 12, 2008
AIG, need to sell quick assets - NIKKEI NET (Nikkei Net): US DJ News - Dow Jones News
If he does not take action, and AIG's stock price keeps falling, AIG may face downgrades. In this case, there is a danger that it will be forced to place at least $ 10 billion as additional collateral for the CDS undertaken by the company. If so, the company is expected to be pressed for further capital increase.
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September 12th, 2008 at 23:57
AIG
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September 13, 2008 07:33
AIG
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September 15, 2008 08: 01
AIG A large-scale restructuring plan to sell aircraft leasing business
Aircraft leasing business owns more than 900 aircraft and has asset value of more than 50 billion dollars (about 5.3 trillion yen).
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2008 年 09 月 15 日 10: 46
AIG to announce business divestiture etc. Request for financing by connecting to the FRBNN - NIKKEI NET (Nikkei Net): International news - Overseas news such as USA, EU, Asia etc. is reported shortly
Along with the seriousness of the subprime mortgage loan problem for individuals with low creditworthiness, AIG is under pressure to satisfy the damaged (capital) capital.
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September 15th, 2008 12:31
JC Flowers · KKR · TPG, AIG
NTY reports that if the counterparty withdraws its capital, AIG may only be able to survive for only 48 hours from 72 hours.
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September 15th, 2008 at 15:14
AIG
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2008 年 09 月 15 日 14: 46
AIG is facing shortage of funds, unnecessary negotiations with PE calls for unusual support for FRB | Business | Reuters
According to a report to the regulatory authorities last month, if downgraded, it would be required to provide additional collateral of $ 14.5 billion.
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2008 年 09 月 15 日 16: 09
U.S. AIG, Accounting for a substantial write-down on Lehman clearance = UBS | Business | Reuters
UBS announced a loss of more than $ 10 billion in super senior-level credit default swaps (CDS) in the third quarter for the American International Group (AIG.N: stock price, company information, report) He said that he could recognize a realized loss of $ 5 billion in the income and investment portfolio.
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September 15, 2008 22:41
AIG
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September 16th, 2008 01:39
AIG, permitting interchange within NY state permitted within the group
We announced a policy to allow AIG to receive $ 20 billion (about 2.1 trillion yen) of interchange from group companies due to cash flow.
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September 16, 2008 07: 57
US AIG, Capital $ 20 billion available = NY Governor | Business | Reuters
AIG will be able to transfer the insurance subsidiary's funds to the parent company.
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September 16, 2008 11: 43
US AIG to make 20 billion dollars available in the group | Reuters
AIG has deteriorated in performance due to guarantee on mortgage related derivatives and has recorded a total loss of $ 18 billion in the past three quarters.
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September 16, 2008
AIG: Rating, A down to minus - S & P - Everyday jp (Mainichi Shimbun)
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September 16, 2008 16:07
The survival of AIG once again focuses, with downgrades and world stock markets | Reuters
AIG is likely to be forced to increase collateral and cancel insurance contracts due to downgrades. Also, this may lead to chain reactions that threaten survival.
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September 16, 2008 16:09
AIG faces serious financial crisis deterioration - NIKKEI NET (Nikkei Net): US DJ news - US news of Dow Jones
According to documents filed by AIG in August with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), if Moody 's and S & amp; P downgrade, AIG may be required to present $ 14.5 billion as additional collateral from counterparties . It is unclear how long we need to procure this fund. Also, based on the downgrade, AIG or its counterparty may ask for cancellation before the contract expires, which would be expected to be up to approximately $ 5.4 billion.
One of the bright elements for AIG as of 15th night was that the company's exposure was largely related to credit default swaps (CDS). CDS is an insurance-like contract for corporate bonds defaults (defaults). AIG's underwritten CDS counterparties include Wall Street companies. Those companies will not demand to immediately issue additional collateral in order not to cause a wider disarray. If we provide additional collateral, we expect to use cash or highly liquid assets such as government bonds and municipal bonds.
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September 16, 2008 22: 27
Major insurance AIG rating, the United States three major agencies cut down 6 pictures International news: AFPBB News
It can be seen that downgrading by the three major institutions in a rapidly expanding financial crisis can be regarded as being cut off for AIG for its lifelines and it will make it more difficult to raise funds necessary for dealing with the liquidity crisis.
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September 17, 2008 00:17
Asahi.com (Asahi Newspaper): Alico Japan etc. under the umbrella of AIG head office downgrading - business
Standard & Poor's (S & P), a major credit rating agency, announced the downgrade of AIG Edison, AIU insurance, American Home insurance, AIU insurance, AIU insurance, AIG Edison Life, which occupies a large share in Japan, in addition to the AIG headquarters.
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September 17, 2008 07: 57
US Agreement with law firm considering the possibility of bankruptcy application application = NYT
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September 17, 2008 08: 09
US AIG has increased the probability of failing = Credit Suisse | Reuters
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September 17, 2008 08:33
FRB is AIG
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September 17, 2008 09: 43
AIG
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September 17, 2008 10:20 AM
FRB, AIG 9 trillion yen loans International news: AFPBB News
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September 17, 2008 12: 13
FRB, AIG 9 trillion yen loan = stock acquisition right of 80% government, under real control - current affairs dot com: designated articles
The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) announced on January 16 that it would lend up to US $ 85 billion (about 9 trillion yen) to American International Group (AIG), the largest US insurance company, with collateral for its assets did. In return, the U.S. government will acquire 79.9% of the company's shares, and AIG will substantially rebuild it under government control.
■ Why did the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Reserve bailed out Lehman, but rescued Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and A.I.G.?
Although we have already explained with the contents up to the above, the contents so far are summarized as follows.
Riemann: Clearly downgrade and money borrowing It was around March 2008 that the vicious cycle loop began, the time to bankruptcy was relatively long, the other companies had time to respond, Lehman himself avoided There was time left to do. Also, Lehman himself has not issued bonds.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Bonds issued by both companies are scattered throughout the world, so if it collapses, the influence spreads around the world.
A.I.G .: Because we undertake various insurance in the world, if it collapses here, the influence spreads to companies around the world.
More than anything, it can be said that the point is "the speed at which the possibility of collapse increases." Regarding Lehman as well, it is possible to point out the result theory that it was good if you had relieved Riemann before it became it actually because it affected A.I.G. by bankruptcy here. However, it should have had enough time to keep it from becoming so, so it did not deserve salvation. However, the crisis of A.I.G. caused by it has proceeded so rapidly that it was forced to rescue.
■ I am not working at Lehman or A.I.G. and I do not own bonds, but what should I be aware of?
It is never about not only the collapse of Lehman himself, but the fact that the entire financial institution that provides funds is becoming helpless. Finance companies are far more cautious about crediting usual companies and individuals. In other words, the cost of credit jumps. This will slow down the growth of the economy as a whole.
To put it simply, it makes me hard to lend money. In this way the turnaround will become worse in every aspect of every company. In the case of individuals, it is possible that the budget that had been out so far will not come out, some budget will be cut off, the plan will be canceled, or the salary will be lower. In other words, it is not a fire on the other side of the ocean. Especially this bankruptcy is spread all over the world in the form of securitization, so it will spread to all financial institutions around the world. Since it is unlikely that any company or individual has anything to do with the financial institution at all, it is certain that its impact will be inevitable in Japan. When the former Japanese land bubble broke down, it was not securitized like this, so it was confined to the influence only in Japan, and its side effects became a form of spill to the world, but this time subprime loan The failure that originates from the problem affects everywhere in the world.
Furthermore, since the Depression of the Great Depression, we have not experienced too much stress of finding this type of stress against the financial system. Therefore, there is almost no recent history as reference when measuring the magnitude of slowdown, and it is absolutely unknown at all what honestly how much influence it will spread around the world in the future.
The recent estimate by Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs suggests that GDP growth will be about 2 percent lower in 2008 and 2009, but an estimate by his explanation Needless to say, it is quite uncertain.
Finally, in general news and others, we report only the surface events, "There are many frivolous talks such as" Where is AIG? "," Why is AIG! "" Why did not Lehman save, AIG remedies! " Although it can be seen, since it is a kind of screaming that you do not understand anything in large scale, in the case of a large-scale financial incident like this one, we will review the historical facts in order and become yourself It is more reliable to organize it.
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