May 18, 2026 15:05:00

The rapid decline in birth rates worldwide may be due to 'smartphones and social media.'

In Japan,

the total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman aged 15-49 will have in her lifetime) is projected to be around 1.13 in 2025, a record low , well below the 2.1 needed to maintain the population without immigration. The declining birthrate is not only a problem in developed countries like Japan, but is also becoming serious in developing countries. The Financial Times suggests that the reason for the global decline in birth rates may be 'smartphones and social media.'

Why birth rates are falling everywhere all at once
https://www.ft.com/content/fba35eca-df3a-4ad6-b42d-eb08eb7c9ad3

◆The declining birth rate is no longer just a problem for developed countries.
As of the time of writing, more than two-thirds of countries have a total fertility rate below 2.1, and the scale and pace of the decline in birth rates far exceeds expectations. Until recently, the rapid decline in birth rates was mainly considered a problem for developed countries, but today many developing countries are also struggling with declining birth rates.

For example, in 2023, Mexico's birth rate fell below that of the United States for the first time, and similar trends were observed in countries such as Brazil, Tunisia, Iran, and Sri Lanka. The Financial Times pointed out that 'low-income and middle-income countries are aging before they become wealthy.'

A declining birthrate and an aging population reduce the working population, hindering improvements in productivity and living standards. It is said that the stagnation of the Japanese economy since the 1990s can be almost entirely explained by the decline in the working population due to the aging population. Furthermore, the increasing financial burden of pensions and long-term care costs, coupled with the resulting pressure on infrastructure investment and social decline, is problematic because it allows anti-establishment politics to gain popularity.

Jesus Fernández-Villaverde, a professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania and a leading expert on the effects of demographic changes, states, 'The declining birth rate is the biggest challenge in modern times. All other problems are downstream from it.'

◆The number of children a couple has has not decreased.
The Financial Times points out that while the decline in global birth rates was once attributed to a decrease in the number of children per couple, in modern times, the number of couples in general has decreased. If the marriage rate and cohabitation rate in the United States had remained constant over the past decade, the total fertility rate should have been higher than it was 10 years ago, but in reality, the birth rate continues to decline.

A study by demographer Stephen Shaw showed that in the United States and most high-income countries, the number of children mothers give birth to is stable or increasing. However, the actual percentage of women who give birth has declined sharply over the past 15 years.

Stereotypes associated with this trend include 'women prioritizing their careers over children' and 'couples with sufficient disposable income are beginning to choose not to have children.' In response, the Financial Times pointed out that in many countries, the decline in marriage and birth rates is more pronounced among those with lower levels of education and income, and that the rate of marriage and having children remains stable among university graduates.

◆Is it due to housing problems?
In several developed countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, soaring housing prices have become a serious problem. A Financial Times analysis suggests that half of the decline in birth rates in these countries since the 1990s can be explained by the decrease in homeownership and the increase in young people living with their parents. When young people cannot afford to own their own long-term housing, it is difficult for them to make long-term plans such as having children.

However, housing issues alone cannot explain the recent decline in birth rates and its global spread. In fact, in the economically stable Nordic region, birth rates are declining despite an increase in young people living alone, just like in other countries. Furthermore, in some countries, couples who start living together are more likely to separate than to have children, a phenomenon that goes against historical norms.

The declining birthrate in recent years is occurring even in countries that were largely unaffected by the global financial crisis, and is seen in both Western Europe, where economic growth has slowed, and the Middle East and Southeast Asia, which are experiencing rapid economic growth. Some link the rise in the university enrollment rate for women to the declining birthrate, but this is a gradual change compared to the rapid decline in the birthrate, and its impact varies from country to country.

◆Smartphones and social media may be contributing to the declining birthrate.
Researchers who believe that purely economic explanations are insufficient to fully capture the declining birthrate are turning their attention to 'smartphones and social media,' which are impacting the lives of young people worldwide. In

a paper published in April 2026 (PDF file) by Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso-Boedo of the University of Cincinnati, they pointed out that the decline in birth rates in the United States and the United Kingdom occurred first and most rapidly in areas where high-speed mobile communication was first introduced. The researchers argued that smartphones have changed how young people interact, and that the significant decrease in face-to-face interaction has led to the decline in birth rates.

An analysis by the Financial Times revealed that similar trends are observed in other parts of the world. For example, birth rates in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia declined sharply from around 2007, in France and Poland around 2009, in Mexico, Morocco, and Indonesia around 2012, and in Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal between 2013 and 2015. All of these turning points coincided with the timing of smartphone adoption in those regions.

Demographer Lyman Stone stated, 'Finding a marriage partner requires choosing from a large group of people. The fewer social opportunities there are, the longer it takes to find a partner, and in some cases, it may not be possible to find one at all.' Indeed, in South Korea, where the declining birthrate is a serious problem, face-to-face interaction among young people has halved in the past 20 years.

Stone also states, 'When you spend a lot of time with people your age in the real world, your standards for a future partner will be rooted in the real world. On the other hand, when you spend time on Instagram, your standards become rooted in an artificial sense of 'normalcy'.' In other words, social media may raise the standards you look for in a romantic partner to an unrealistic level, which may make it harder to find a partner.

Studies in sub-Saharan Africa have actually shown that higher rates of social media use are associated with lower birth rates. Social media and SNS use can influence people's views on relationships, create ideological divisions between young men and women, and amplify economic concerns.

The influence of new media on birth rates is not a new discovery. A 2001 study found a stronger correlation between declining birth rates and 'television ownership' than income or education level. Other studies have reported that watching television dramas depicting small families reduces the number of births women have (PDF file) , and that television ownership reduces the frequency of sex between couples (PDF file ) . The Financial Times points out that smartphone use may be far greater than television use, given that it is more frequent and often done alone.

Even if smartphone ownership and social media use are contributing to the decline in birth rates, it's unrealistic to try to 'prevent citizens from using these technologies.' While some studies suggest that 'providing safe and suitable housing for young couples can significantly increase birth rates,' population decline isn't solely due to economic factors, and government resources are limited.

The Financial Times stated, 'More importantly, the decline in birth rates appears to be part of a broader phenomenon of young people becoming single, isolated, and experiencing decreased well-being. Given the possible link between technology and social media, the best way to reverse this trend may be to change our digital habits, whether through cultural shifts or government regulation.'