Trump tariffs are an 'own goal' with 96% of the burden paid by Americans, study finds

A study published in January 2026 by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank, showed that the burden of tariffs imposed by the US in 2025 will be largely borne by US importers and consumers, rather than by targeted foreign companies. The researchers described this as an 'own goal.'

America's Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? - Kiel Institute
https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/americas-own-goal-who-pays-the-tariffs-19398/

(PDF file) Kiel Policy Brief January 2026 America's Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs?
https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/5250d502-d828-45b9-a044-264d8b8da139-KPB201_EN.pdf

U.S. President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world, including Japan, in 2025 to protect domestic industries and pressure trade negotiations. As a result, U.S. tariff revenues are expected to increase by approximately $200 billion (approximately 31 trillion yen) in 2025.

To investigate whether US tariff policy worked, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy analyzed data on more than 25 million transactions between January 2024 and November 2025. The analysis examined the 'pass-through' of tariffs to import prices, or 'where the costs of tariffs are actually borne.'

The study found that approximately 96% of the tariff costs were passed on to importers and consumers in the United States, while only 4% was absorbed by foreign exporters. Specifically, it was found that not only did the rising prices of imported goods increase the burden on consumers, but the tariffs also affected the prices of domestic products. It was pointed out immediately after the announcement of the reciprocal tariffs that the Trump tariffs would increase the burden on Americans.

How will the Trump tariffs affect Americans' food costs?

The researchers say that the increased tariff revenue of about $200 billion in 2025 would essentially be a 'tax paid by the American people.'

The study also analyzed the tariff hikes imposed on Brazil and India in August 2025. Tariffs on imports from Brazil were suddenly increased to 50%, and tariffs on imports to India were suddenly increased from 25% to 50%. While tariff hikes are often implemented in the hope that foreign exporters will lower their prices to offset the additional tariffs, the study found that no price reductions occurred and exporters did not absorb the tariffs. The researchers noted, 'When comparing Indian exports to the United States with those to Europe and Canada, a clear pattern emerged: both the value and volume of exports to the United States plummeted by up to 24%. However, the unit prices charged by Indian exporters remained flat. Export volume simply decreased, not became cheaper.'

'The claim that foreign countries are paying these tariffs is a myth. The data shows the opposite: Americans are paying the price, and the tariffs are an 'own goal,'' Julian Hintz, research director at the Kiel Institute, said in a press release .