What is the accident rate of self-driving cars? Verification based on 80 million km of driving records
Waymo, which was established in 2016 when Google's self-driving car development division was spun off, has already developed taxi services without human drivers and has made
public its driving records . Timothy B. Lee, a journalist who is knowledgeable about AI, examined Waymo's driving records and concluded that 'it is much safer than a human driver.'
Waymo has had dozens of crashes—almost all were a human driver's fault
https://www.understandingai.org/p/human-drivers-keep-crashing-into
Waymo's self-driving taxi service, Waymo One, exceeded 50 million miles (about 80 million km) in December 2024 without a driver. Of course, there have been many accidents so far. In January 2025, the first fatal accident occurred in which an unmanned Waymo stopped at a red light, and a human-driven SUV entered at high speed and rear-ended the vehicle, resulting in a chain reaction involving six vehicles, killing one person and a dog, and injuring five people. In addition, in October 2024, an accident occurred in which an autonomous Waymo stopped at a red light, and a vehicle in the oncoming lane crossed the center line and collided with the vehicle, causing one person to be seriously injured.
Federal regulations require Waymo to report accidents, regardless of whether Waymo vehicles were at fault, even if Waymo was not in motion at the time the accident occurred. After Lee reviewed Waymo's accident reports, he found that most of the accidents were so-called 'hit-and-run accidents,' where a Waymo vehicle was obeying the rules of the road, but a human violated the rules of the road by speeding, ignoring traffic signals, or drifting from its lane.
For example, between July 2024 and February 2025, Waymo reported 38 serious accidents resulting in injuries or airbag deployment, but Waymo's responsibility was clear in only one case, responsibility could not be determined in three cases, and the remaining 34 cases were likely to be hit-and-run accidents. Specifically, in 16 of the 34 cases, Waymo's vehicles were stopped, eight were rear-ended, and five were due to the other party ignoring a traffic signal or violating a stop sign.
Of the remaining five accidents for which Waymo appears not to be responsible, three involved passengers opening the door to exit the Waymo and being hit by a following car or motorcycle, and two involved accidents for which no collision was recorded. In one of the accidents for which no collision was recorded, the Waymo slightly changed direction in preparation for a lane change, and the driver of the car next to it became startled and swerved sharply, crashing into the curb. In the other, a pedestrian passed in front of the Waymo, and the Waymo started moving, and the pedestrian made a U-turn and approached the Waymo, claiming that he had been 'hit by the Waymo and suffered minor injuries.'
On the other hand, as an example of an accident for which Waymo is clearly responsible, Lee cited an accident in December 2024. In this accident, a Waymo collided with a plastic box, and a scooter traveling in the adjacent lane was hit by the flying box and fell over. The other three cases for which responsibility could not be determined were all so-called '
right-turn accidents ,' in which another vehicle entered the area where the Waymo was traveling straight.
Regardless of who was to blame in these three cases, many other serious accidents were caused by humans, not the autonomous driving company Waymo. Compared to human drivers, Waymo estimates that the accident rate per mile driven was 83% lower in accidents resulting in airbag deployment and 81% lower in accidents resulting in injury.
If Waymo is held responsible, the number of accidents will be further reduced. According to a joint study by Waymo and an insurance company, the probability of Waymo incurring damages is 90% lower than that of a human.
Waymo, which plans to expand into Japan, announces survey data showing that self-driving cars have fewer accidents and are safer than cars driven by humans - GIGAZINE
Lee also noted that the number of serious accidents per mile driven has decreased compared to Waymo's past accident records, and that 'the safety of self-driving cars continues to improve year after year.'
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