Experts say risk of asteroid 2024 YR4, with 2% chance of hitting Earth, will eventually be close to 0%
An asteroid called
Why asteroid 2024 YR4 is unlikely to hit Earth in 2032 | AP News
https://apnews.com/article/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-2032-5c353e2ee53bb1ecd68a562611d54062
In December 2024, astronomers using a Chilean telescope that is part of the Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) discovered an asteroid called 2024 YR4 that may be on a collision course with Earth.
Asteroid that may collide with Earth discovered, probability of collision is 1 in 77 - GIGAZINE
The asteroid '2024 YR4,' which has the potential to collide with Earth, is estimated to be 40 to 90 meters in diameter. NASA plans to use the James Webb Space Telescope , operated jointly by the European Space Agency and others, to observe 2024 YR4 in March 2025, during which the size of the asteroid will be measured. However, after March 2025, 2024 YR4 will move to a position that cannot be observed from Earth, so if this opportunity is missed, the next time it can be observed will be around 2028.
NASA and the European Space Agency initially estimated the chance of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth to be just over 1%. However, the latest projections have raised the chance of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 to 2%, NASA reports. However, at the same time, NASA noted that 'the chance of impact is still extremely low.'
According to experts, the probability will continue to fluctuate and may even become zero until we understand the orbit of 2024 YR4 around the sun in more detail. 'There's nothing to be worried about. This is a product of curiosity,' said Larry Denault, a senior software engineer at the University of Hawaii's Asteroid Impact Warning System, which discovered 2024 YR4. 'Don't panic. Let's wait for the process to progress, and we'll have a definitive answer.'
Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, also told the Associated Press, 'No one should be worried about the impact probability increasing. This is what our team expected.' 'To be clear, we expect the impact probability to drop to zero at some point.'
At the time of writing, the size and orbit of 2024 YR4 are unknown, so it is unclear where it will fall if it hits the Earth, or what kind of impact it will have if it hits. If 2024 YR4 is small, the impact will be localized, like the Tunguska explosion , in which a meteorite fell on the Siberian outskirts in 1908, the European Space Agency said. However, if 2024 YR4 is close to 100 meters in size, the impact will be much more severe.
Chodas noted that if the James Webb Space Telescope can accurately measure the size of 2024 YR4, 'we'll be able to predict how severe the impact will be and how difficult it will be to deflect it.'
Continued
The risk of the asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has dropped to 1 in 100,000, effectively making it zero and ineligible for risk assessment - GIGAZINE
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