Summary of four weather conditions that are making 2023 particularly hot, what will happen after 2024?


by

Graeme

On July 4, 2023, the highest temperature ever observed was observed, and hot days continued after that, and `` July 2023 will be the hottest month ever '', so the summer of 2023 will be a record anyway. It's breaking hot. It is expected that severe weather will continue in the future due to the worsening climate change, but especially in 2023, four phenomena will overlap, causing unprecedented heat to hit the world, according to the Department of Humanities and Sciences, St. Louis Washington University. Michael Wysession points out.

July was Earth's hottest month on record: 4 factors driving 2023's extreme heat and climate disasters
https://theconversation.com/july-was-earths-hottest-month-on-record-4-factors-driving-2023s-extreme-heat-and-climate-disasters-209975

◆1: El Niño phenomenon
An El Niño event is a phenomenon that affects global temperatures as the sea surface temperature rises in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

For example, a strong El Niño event occurred in 2016, making 2016 the warmest year on record. A relatively weak El Niño event also occurred in 2019-2020, making 2020 the second warmest year.

After that, the La Niña event that lasted for three years from 2020 caused the sea level in the Pacific Ocean to be lower than normal. It is expected to be a year old. As mentioned above, July 2023 has already become the hottest month in recorded history, and Iran has reported an incredible heat index of about 67 degrees, which is close to the limit of the human body.



◆2: Sun fluctuation
The sun seems to emit a constant radiance every day, but the energy it emits fluctuates by about 1/1000 in an 11-year cycle. Although we do not notice this change in our daily lives, it is one of the factors that influence the climate of the earth.

First, in the case of the solar maximum , when the sun is active, the global temperature rise is about 0.05 degrees Celsius, which is about one-third the magnitude of the large-scale El Niño. On the other hand, since the temperature decreases during the solar minimum, the 2020 solar minimum acted to soften the effects of the weaker El Niño event that occurred in the same year.

Solar activity, which reached a minimum in 2020, is on the way to peaking in 2025, but by 2023 it will already exceed the peak of the 2014 maximum , and this intense solar activity will continue. The energy of solar activity is accelerating the temperature rise caused by the El Niño phenomenon.



◆3: Large-scale volcanic eruption
In normal eruptions, the sulphate aerosols that are swept up into the atmosphere block sunlight, thus cooling the planet, but there are exceptions.

The massive eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano in 2022, the largest volcanic eruption of the 21st century so far, released significantly fewer sulfate aerosols but produced vast amounts of water vapor. . This is because the magma that erupted to the bottom of the sea exploded underwater, evaporating a large amount of seawater.

Water vapor is such a powerful greenhouse gas that it is estimated that the eruption would warm the surface by 0.035 degrees. What's more, unlike sulfate aerosol particles, which fall within a year or two, water vapor can remain in the atmosphere for a long time, and the warming effects of Tonga's volcanic eruption are expected to continue for at least five years. is.

You can see at a glance how huge the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano in 2022 was.

It is estimated that the large eruption of Tonga had more than 500 times the explosive power of the Hiroshima-type atomic bomb, comparative images before and after the eruption are also ants - GIGAZINE



◆ 4: Global warming
As the word says, global warming is one of the factors that make the earth hotter. Since 1900, humans have released large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, raising the average global temperature by 1.1 degrees Celsius. In particular, the burning of fossil fuels in cars and power plants has increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by 50%. The impact of man-made greenhouse gases is more than 1.1 degrees Celsius, but it is offset to some extent by effects such as air pollution, which blocks sunlight.

Michael Wysession of St. Louis Washington University believes that the impacts of climate change will continue to be particularly severe in the years beyond 2023. This is because the El Niño event is likely to continue, and the impact of the solar maximum has not yet reached its peak and is expected to intensify. In addition, the effects of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano will continue for the time being. .

A combination of worsening human-induced climate change and a range of weather conditions will at least temporarily exceed the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the next few years. The possibility is calculated to be '50% or more', and it is expected that human beings will be hit by increasingly severe heat in the future.

The World Meteorological Organization warns that the record heat wave will cause the first ``temperature rise of 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial revolution'' in the history of observation by 2027-GIGAZINE

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