Jul 26, 2023 12:40:00

Climatologist says 'as we expected' about the heat wave in July 2023

Due to the triple whammy of seasonal cycles,

El Niño and global warming, the global average temperature on July 4, 2023 was reported to be 17.18 degrees Celsius, the hottest day since records began in 1979. July 2023 will be the hottest on record in the northern hemisphere. The World Weather Attribution, an international research institute that studies climate change and extreme weather events, has announced an analysis that 'unless greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced immediately, such extreme heat will become commonplace in the coming decades.' Did.

Spiral: Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change
https://doi.org/10.25561/105549

Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change – World Weather Attribution

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/

Climatologists: July's intense heat “exactly what we expected to see” | Ars Technica

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/07/current-heatwaves-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/

In July 2023, extreme heat waves occurred in several northern hemisphere countries and regions, including the southwestern United States, Mexico, southern Europe, and China, and on July 16 , Death Valley National Park in the United States and northern China. Temperatures have been reported to exceed 50 degrees in the west.

As a result of analysis by World Weather Attribution using a method called ' extreme event attribution ', global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions etc. has increased the average temperature of the earth to 2 degrees Celsius since the era of the industrial revolution . As it rises, it turns out that heatwaves like July 2023 occur every two to five years. World Weather Attribution speculates, ``Unless the world stops using fossil fuels immediately, these events will become more common and the planet will experience hotter and longer lasting heat waves.'' increase.

Below are the results of the analysis by World Weather Attribution. In some parts of North America, Southern Europe, and China, it can be confirmed that the maximum temperature exceeds 30 degrees Celsius every day in July 2023 (left). In addition, as a result of comparing the average temperatures for the same period from 1950 to 2023, it became clear that the average temperatures in these regions have increased over the past 70 years (right).

Also, if greenhouse gas emissions increase at the same pace as today, the average global temperature will rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius within about 30 years.

``In today's climate, where human economic activity has warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution, extreme heatwaves like July 2023 are no longer uncommon,'' said World Weather Attribution. An extreme heat wave is expected to occur about once every 15 years in North America, once every ten years in Southern Europe, and once every five years in China.'

Additionally, World Weather Attribution analyzes that greenhouse gas pollution has increased heatwaves in Europe by 2.5 degrees Celsius, North America by 2 degrees Celsius, and China by 1 degree Celsius. According to World Weather Attribution, heat waves so far in North America and Europe could hardly have occurred without the effects of global warming.

Friederike Otto of World Weather Attribution said, ``The role of greenhouse gases in climate change is enormous, and it is not surprising that the record heat wave of July 2023 is occurring simultaneously around the world. Effect gas emissions have increased over the last few years, so it's no surprise that we're seeing record-breaking heatwaves, and we climatologists have known for a long time that things like this are happening. was expected,” he points out.

Furthermore, Mr. Otto said, ``The vulnerability of human social systems and ecosystems to climate change has not been adequately studied in the past decades,'' he said, preparing for extreme climates. is late.

However, progress among nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions immediately has been slow. No agreement was concluded.

More than 61,000 people were reported to have died from heat stroke in Europe in the summer of 2022, and more victims are expected to occur in the summer of 2023. ``We need a cultural shift in how we think about extreme heat,'' says Julie Arigi of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Center . “To save lives from the heat wave, we need support for the most vulnerable, including the elderly, those with underlying medical conditions, the homeless, and communities with limited access to cool spaces,” said Arigi. ' said.

“Many communities still do not have proper heat stroke warning alerts or action guidelines for extreme heat,” Arigi said. Necessary investments, such as strengthening resilience, have not been made.”

``The heat wave in July 2023 is no longer an abnormal weather,'' Otto emphasizes. ``Remember, extreme heat not only kills people, it can hurt and destroy their lives,'' he said.