All corals will suffer a serious bleaching event with another 1.5 degrees of global warming
Future loss of local-scale thermal refugia in coral reef ecosystems
https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004
All coral will suffer severe bleaching when global heating hits 1.5C, study finds | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/01/all-coral-will-suffer-severe-bleaching-when-global-heating-hits-15c-study-finds
Safe havens for coral reefs will be almost non-existent at 1.5 ° C of global warming – new study
https://theconversation.com/safe-havens-for-coral-reefs-will-be-almost-non-existent-at-1-5-c-of-global-warming-new-study-176084
Coral is an animal that lives in a specific temperature range and uses photosynthesis of zooxanthellae as an energy source. If the seawater temperature rises over a long period of time, this energy source will be lost and whiten. This is called the bleaching phenomenon, and it seems that corals die if bleaching continues for a long time.
Climate change has caused more frequent ocean heat waves around the world, most notably in the tropics and corals. Even if coral causes bleaching, it can be recovered over a long period of time. However, as the frequency of ocean heat waves increases, it is reported that more individuals will die as corals lose the time required to recover from the bleaching phenomenon. Ocean heat waves can have a significant impact on coral-rich areas such as the northern Great Barrier Reef and the Atolls of the Maldives, the world's largest coral reef areas.
A report released in 2018 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an intergovernmental organization established by the World Meteorological Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), shows that the average global temperature rises by 1.5 degrees in 12 years. However, it is estimated that 70-90% of the world's coral reefs will disappear.
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The latest study, published in PLOS Climate, a peer-reviewed open journal for all studies addressing global warming, states that 'the world is in the early 2030s without drastic action to limit greenhouse gas emissions. When it reaches, 99% of the world's coral reefs will be exposed to irreparable ocean heat waves and die due to an average temperature rise of 1.5 degrees predicted by the IPCC. ' The paper states that the increased frequency of ocean heat waves will kill thousands of coral reef organisms and coral, affecting approximately one billion people who are benefiting from coral reef ecosystems.
Many scientists are concerned that global warming can kill corals. However, some researchers hope that the environment around the reefs will keep the corals at the right temperature. The conditions for keeping this coral reef at an appropriate temperature are 'the sea area where cold water springs up toward the surface of the earth' or 'the sea area where strong currents occur', and such sea areas are called 'refugium'. increase.
From 1986 to 2019, 84% of the world's coral reefs were sufficient refugium (blue). However, according to the IPCC report, the research team points out that if the average temperature rises by 1.5 degrees by 2030, most of the refugium will disappear and the coral reefs will die (in red).
Given the rate of increase in average temperature due to global warming, it is quite possible that ocean heat waves will occur more frequently in the future, which will almost kill coral reefs around the world. Also, according to the research team, most coral reefs around the world are at least once in danger of similar death in the last decade.
However, not all corals in the world bleach because ocean heat waves do not occur globally. However, even coral species that can withstand extremely high temperatures are unlikely to withstand ocean heat waves as reported by the IPCC, suggesting that most corals will die.
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