What is 'vaccine effectiveness' from the data of breakthrough infections?
The highly infectious new coronavirus
COVID-19 Breakthrough Data | Department of Health
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data
Coronavirus NY Update: Omicron Breakthrough Infection Data Stuns, Hospitalizations Top 12K – NBC New York
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/new-ny-breakthrough-data-show-omicrons-stunning-december-impact-as-viral-growth-rates-appear-to-slow/3487965/
With the influx of Omicron strains, the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) has re-expanded in New York since December 2021, and the number of hospitalized patients exceeded 12,000 in January 2022. Meanwhile, the number of inpatients has been declining, and Governor Kathy Hochul said at a press conference on January 14 that the infection had reached a turning point .
According to data collected by the New York State Department of Health by January 10, 2022, 888,974 people were confirmed to be infected more than 14 days after vaccination was completed, with breakthrough infections. The number of hospitalized people is 25,378. Infected persons account for 6.7% of those who have completed vaccination over the age of 12, and inpatients account for 0.19% of those who have completed vaccination. The epidemic of the Omicron strain has certainly increased breakthrough infections, with a breakthrough infection rate of 29.8 per 100,000 in the first week of December 2021, compared to 223.3 per 100,000 in the final week of December. It seems that it has more than doubled.
However, despite the increase in breakthrough infections, we also know that the prevalence of unvaccinated individuals is even higher. In the last week of December 2021, the infection rate of unvaccinated people was 1583.1 per 100,000, which is nearly seven times the infection rate of those who completed vaccination, and the infection rate in the first week of December was 239.6 per 100,000. The infection rate was higher than in the last week of December for people and those who completed vaccination.
The graph below shows breakthrough infection case number data published by the State of New York. The red color shows 'the number of newly infected people per 100,000 people who have completed vaccination', the blue color shows 'the number of newly infected people per 100,000 people who have not been vaccinated', and the black color shows 'the efficacy rate of vaccine'. The number of new infections per 100,000 is clearly lower for those who have completed vaccination, and although the vaccine efficacy rate dropped sharply in December 2021, it is still close to 80%. In addition, the gray part at the right end of the graph indicates that it is the 'period in which new data may still occur', and the numerical value in this part may fluctuate.
In the graph below, the red color is 'the number of new hospitalizations per 100,000 people who have completed vaccination', the blue color is 'the number of new hospitalizations per 100,000 people who have not been vaccinated', and the black color is 'the vaccine efficacy rate for hospitalization'. Shown. The ratio of new hospitalizations is also overwhelmingly smaller for those who have completed vaccination, and it can be seen that the vaccine efficacy rate for hospitalization is 90% or more. The hospitalization rate in the last week of December was 4.6 per 100,000 vaccinated and 59.2 unvaccinated, 13 times less than vaccinated.
From the above graph, it can be seen that although the infection rate and hospitalization rate have increased overall due to the epidemic of the Omicron strain, those who have completed vaccination are still protected from COVID-19. Also, according to New York state data, 42% of 'inpatients with COVID-19' who surged from just before Christmas were not hospitalized with COVID-19, but 'COVID-19 when hospitalized for another illness'. was subjected to the test, both it was found 'that are infected with COVID-19
Hacker News, a news forum, exchanges opinions on breakthrough infection data published by the State of New York.
Covid-19 breakthrough data | Hacker News
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29956681
One user said, 'I was COVID-19 positive on my self-test kit, but I didn't report it because my symptoms were only mild colds and I didn't want to burden the medical institution. My friend also tested it and found it to be completely asymptomatic but positive for COVID-19. In this case, I didn't report it to the authorities, so it's not counted as an official case. ' It has also been pointed out that there may be a difference in the official infection rate.
In this statement, there was a comment that 'I was positive for COVID-19 when I tested it, but I did not report it because it was asymptomatic', and 'If I did not report it asymptomatic or very mildly' However, it is a fact that 'I was not hospitalized', and I think I can trust the hospitalization rate and the risk of aggravation. '
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