Research results show that 'influenza', which has reduced the number of infected people to 1/1000 with the new corona, will be revived
The new coronavirus infection due to the impact of the global epidemic of (COVID-19), the average infection toll has become 1 of the 1000 minutes of the annual 'flu', '2021 serious than usual in the winter The research result of 'doing' was newly reported.
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Influenza tends to spread in winter every year, but in 2020, as a result of wearing masks and washing hands as a measure against COVID-19, the number of infected people has dropped sharply to '1/1000' compared to the usual year. Among them, the two species '3c3.A' and 'B / Yamagata' have been reported to be 'extinct' because the number of infected people has been zero for more than a year since March 2020.
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Influenza has become less talked about, but two new predictions from the University of Pittsburgh Institute for Public Health Dynamics in the United States are that 'influenza will be more serious than usual in the winter of 2022, especially infants will be hit hard.' The result has been released.
The first research result is the analysis and prediction of influenza using the SEIR model conducted by Mr. Kyueun Lee, who belongs to the institute. Using data from 2009 to 2020, Lee simulated the relationship between influenza pandemic and herd immunity, saying, 'Influenza hospitalization was about 102,000 in the United States from 2021 to 2022. The number of people will increase. '
Lee predicts that if a highly contagious flu epidemic occurs and the flu vaccine rate is low, the number of hospitalized patients could increase by 409,000. If he wants to avoid this increase in hospitalization, he says the flu shot rate needs to be increased from 50% to 75%.
The second research result is the analysis prediction of influenza using the infectious disease mathematical model conducted by Mary Krauland, who belongs to the institute, and used a model different from Lee mentioned above, but 'more than usual. It was common in that it became more serious. According to a study by Krauland, the number of people infected with influenza increased by 20% in the winter of 2021 compared to the average year, and infants under the age of 2 were particularly at risk of infection due to the return of the 2020 influenza depletion period. It will be expensive.
In Lee's study mentioned above, it was important to raise the vaccination rate, but in this regard, Krauland's study is similar, and Krauland said, 'If you raise the influenza vaccine rate by 10%, the number of hospitalizations will increase. It will drop by 6-46%. '
Mark Roberts, director of the institute, who oversaw the above two studies, said, 'This result does not mean that COVID-19 mitigation measures should be stopped so as not to exacerbate influenza in the future, but rather to avoid bad results. Indicates that flu vaccination is absolutely necessary. '
in Science, Posted by darkhorse_log