Aug 11, 2021 20:00:00

Research results show that eradication of the new corona is not impossible, 'more difficult than eradication of smallpox'

It has been more than a year since the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that occurred in China in December 2019 has been rampant all over the world, but

mutant strains such as Delta strain and Lambda strain have appeared. In addition, the number of infected people on a daily basis does not seem to be settled due to breakthrough infection, which is transmitted even to those who have been vaccinated. Returning to a pre-pandemic maskless life feels like a dream these days, but researchers are analyzing the ' potential to eradicate the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19).' ..

We should not dismiss the possibility of eradicating COVID-19: comparisons with smallpox and polio | BMJ Global Health
https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/8/e006810

Can The World Ever Eradicate COVID-19? Scientists Crunched The Numbers
https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-estimate-how-likely-are-we-to-eradicate-covid-19

The latest analysis by New Zealand scientists shows whether COVID-19 can be eradicated by meta-analyzing past research data and comparing it with past epidemic infectious diseases such as smallpox and polio. I am analyzing. This analysis suggests that eradication of COVID-19 is difficult but not impossible.

Although it is a new type of coronavirus that is rampant all over the world, when checking infection cases in various regions, some communities have succeeded in preventing the spread of infection without vaccination. In countries such as China, Hong Kong, Iceland and New Zealand, existing methods such as strict border control, wearing masks, ensuring social distance, PCR testing and contact tracking are the only methods to temporarily control the spread of the virus before the vaccine is introduced. Was successful.

In addition, humans have succeeded in completely eradicating the viral infection of smallpox in the past. Smallpox is an infectious disease confirmed around 1100 BC and has been coexisting with humankind for over 3000 years. However, the use of vaccines that appeared in the 1970s promoted eradication plans in various countries and regions around the world, and in 1980 the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a declaration of eradication of smallpox from the earth. There are no smallpox patients.

Polio is another successful example of the effectiveness of vaccination. Polioviruses are divided into three types, type 1, type 2, and type 3, depending on their antigenicity, but since two of them have been eradicated worldwide,

cases of wild-type poliovirus were from 1988 to 2018. It has decreased by 99%.

A New Zealand research team has analyzed 'vaccine availability,' 'immunity duration,' and 'public health measures' to analyze whether COVID-19 can follow a path similar to these cases. Created a scoring system using multiple variables, such as 'impact' and 'effect of government-led message about infection'. The scoring system shows the likelihood of eradication of an infectious disease in a score format, with higher scores indicating a higher likelihood of eradication.

As a result of comparing COVID-19 with past viral infections using this system, the eradication potential of each infection was calculated as follows.

Polio: 26 points
COVID-19: 28 points
Smallpox: 43 points

This result means that eradication of COVID-19 is much more difficult than smallpox, but it is easier than polio, which has been nearly successfully eradicated. However, the research team points out that there are some challenges in eradicating COVID-19, specifically, 'people's hesitation about vaccination' and 'rapid evolution of mutants'. Is listed.

Even if COVID-19 has not been eradicated, 'the upgrade of the medical system promoted to eradicate COVID-19 will prevent the spread of other diseases or eradicate measles. It can be very helpful, 'the research team said. 'In summary, it can take years to eradicate COVID-19, which may not eventually be eradicated, but it can be estimated that more benefits can be gained,' he added. He emphasizes that the move towards eradication of COVID-19 will definitely benefit the world.