Bill Gates says, 'Are we ready for a pandemic?'
Microsoft's founder, Bill Gates, has been calling since 2015 that 'we must prepare for the plague pandemic, just like we are preparing for war and nuclear weapons.' You can read below what Gates suggested to help prevent fatalities in a pandemic:
As predicted by Gates, the outbreak of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) worldwide in 2020, how Gates views this situation, March 25, 2020 Gates says.
How we must respond to the coronavirus pandemic | Bill Gates-YouTube
Gates asked, 'Did people listen to the warnings you made in 2015?' And said, 'Sorry, the answer is no.' Although some institutions have made progress in terms of vaccines, Gates said that in terms of diagnosis, antibodies, and antiviral drugs, what he said in the lecture as `` what to do '' in fighting disease has not been implemented. Replied.
However, smallpox kills 30% of patients, but many people with COVID-19 can survive. This means that COVID-19 is more infectious than SARS and MARS and not fatal. The outbreak of COVID-19 is unprecedented, but if it can be suppressed well, it is possible that many people can be saved from death. On the other hand, Gates noted that potentially more lethal respiratory viruses could develop in the future.
The 2015 lecture showed a simulation of the spread of the Spanish cold and the 1918 influenza virus, but in the 2020 era people are much more mobile than in 1918. While this has contributed to the spread of the infection, healthcare systems for treating people have evolved.
What Gates believes should be discussed first is 'inspection'. At this stage, testing has not been able to keep up in many areas and the people who need it cannot continue testing. Many healthcare workers have not been able to do so, even though they need it. Gates emphasized that being 'testable' was paramount.
And then about 'quarantine'. Isolation is intolerable for people and can hurt the economy. However, the sooner you isolate, the sooner you can return to your daily routine.
According to the interviewer in the movie, 'The wise scientists should have known that this is the case. Gates also simulated using the number of infected people and mortality as of February 2020. But why did we know that hundreds of people would die and couldn't take such a 'wise man' in a month? '
Mr. Gates admits that he could not work advantageously in February, although he knew the situation as of February, but the development of home PCR test kits is progressing, reducing the burden on medical institutions Said that Researchers have just sent the test kit data to the
It is undecided at the time of article creation whether this test method will be performed through a medical institution or delivered by a home delivery service like Amazon. However, in Gates's head, it seems that the website is set up and the image that the US government or local government takes the initiative is drawn.
On the other hand, expanding the test could bring together those who would otherwise be isolated. In this regard, Gates believes that 'being tested will guide you in determining that you should be isolated.' In other words, in COVID-19, where there are many asymptomatic patients, it is easy to think that people with mild symptoms can be active, but a positive result in the test raises the awareness that 'I am a person to be isolated.' It will come out. For this reason, it is necessary to have two sets of 'expand the inspection' and 'test in a way that people do not crowd.'
Many people are also looking at what can be gained from an isolation strategy. If everyone stays home and does their daily work for months, the impact on the economy will be immense. Gates notes that while isolation strategies in many countries may be wrong, Gates said, 'There are strategies to get over population immunity, but population immunity is meaningless until more than half of the population is infected. The fatality rate rises from 3% to 4% instead of 1% due to the load on the system. This is a very irresponsible idea. '' Needs an extreme shutdown. Hopefully in 6-10 weeks everyday You can go back to '. In Europe, many people did not take the heavy burden of saying `` 1% of the population will be sick '', but in Korea, the situation was seriously examined early and an extreme blockade was implemented. It was not reached.
When asked, 'What to do if you were president?' Gates said, 'First, give a clear message that there is no other way than an isolation strategy. The thing is ... in the case of China, about six weeks, it's about preparing for it, and if quarantine goes well, the numbers will actually change within 20 days. But it is easier to revive the economy than to bring the dead back to life. '
Also, working in rich countries does not always work in developing countries. Economically struggling people are forced to work to eat, and it is difficult for people living in slums to gain social distance from people. In such countries, we have to rely on the development of vaccines and drugs. Given the need for respirators in 5% of infected people, it is imperative that rich countries provide funding and provide vaccines and medical supplies to minimize damage to developing countries. Gates said. Many countries have begun to blame other countries for the outbreak of the new coronavirus, but Gates says, `` I can see both signs of cooperation and signs of hostility now, '' and a restored country should help other countries. Yes, he said that prejudice must be avoided.
In addition, Gates noted that in the southern hemisphere, such as Africa, South America, Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia, the epidemic of the new coronavirus is not very common, saying, `` Is the infectivity low or not shown in the test results? I don't know.Whether the new coronavirus is seasonal should be clear in the coming months: good news for the northern hemisphere, bad news for the southern hemisphere, until the next season for the northern hemisphere It's nice to be able to get the time, but in a few months the southern hemisphere will enter fall and winter, although there are few elderly people in the southern hemisphere, many people are HIV-positive, and some people have lung problems with indoor smoking There could be a virus mutation. '
Finally, Gates said, 'Five years ago, I said that the pandemic was an' unprepared threat. If we had done the right thing, we would have been more prepared this time. But we have the science. The way to prepare for the next pandemic is clear: we need tens of billions of dollars, not hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars. ' He pointed out that it is possible for people to step up to help each other.
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