Is the myth that real people are more likely to run a crime on a full moon night true?



It is well known that the gravity of the moon affects the earth, causing the tide to ebb and flow. Others claim that the moon has a significant effect on the human spirit, and some have argued that the full moon increases the crime rate . Whether the phases of the moon and the number of crimes are really linked, a research team at the Maron Institute for Urban Management in New York University has published the findings.

The relationship between calls for service and phase of the moon
(PDF file)

http://betagov.org/completed-trials/Mexico-Lunar.pdf

It's better light, not worse behavior, that explains crimes on a full Moon
https://theconversation.com/its-better-light-not-worse-behaviour-that-explains-crimes-on-a-full-moon-101524


Does crime increase when the moon is full? | EurekAlert! Science News
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-10/nyu-dci102919.php


Studies on the relationship between the moon and crime have been published. For example, an analysis conducted in 1985 examined more than 30 papers published so far and argued that 'it is not appropriate to speculate that the behavior of the moon is going to go wrong with human behavior.' Also, in the study published in 2009, it was published from 1999 to 2005 study in, alignment against the 23,000 of more than crime rate and the phases of the moon that occurred in Germany from 1999 to 2005 However, no correlation was found.

However, a study reported in 2017 asserts that 'there is a connection between moon and crime rate.' Lisa Stolzenberg, a criminal law scholar at Florida International University , said that crimes that occurred in 13 states and the District of Columbia in 2014 were `` outdoors '' and `` indoors '' And matched each data to the phases of the moon. As a result, while 'there was no association between crime committed indoors and the phases of the moon,' 'there was a tendency for criminal activity outdoors to increase as the moon filled,' a study by Florida International University The team argued.



With such research, the myth that 'the moonlight has the effect of increasing the number of criminals' came to be whispered. Marron urban management Institute research team involved in the joint research project with the government '

BetaGov ' is, look at the newspaper article that police officers of the California Bareho City claim that 'the full moon day increase the incidence of crime', The police decided to test whether the moon phases were related to the crime rate.

The team first obtained data from the police in the city of Vallejo from January 2014 to May 2018 from the police and compared them with the phases of the moon. It turns out that there is no relationship between the crime rate and the full moon. This has shown that at least in Vallejo, California, people do not commit crimes just because a full moon has been reached.

In addition, the research team worked with police in Barry, Ontario, Canada and Irapuato, Guanajuato, Mexico, to investigate whether there was a similar relationship between moon phases and crime rates, but none of them. No significant association was found.



`` This type of analysis is interesting, but the findings have real implications for police activities, such as the development of police staffing and other law enforcement resource allocations, '' said Professor Angela Hawken of the Maron Institute for Urban Management. 'It's surprising, but it's important to be aware of your assumptions and use data.'

in Science, Posted by log1i_yk