Concerns of meteorologists that weather forecast accuracy may be reduced by 30% with 5G communications



The next-generation high-speed communication system “ 5G ” is expected to enable enormous amounts of data communication. Weather forecasting experts are expressing concerns with the practical application of 5G, “5G communication will reduce the accuracy of weather forecasts by 30%, and there is a possibility of going back to the 1980s level.” Voice is raised.

5G deal reached that threatens weather forecast accuracy, experts say-The Washington Post

In the United States, the 24 GHz band has been allocated as a 5G band, and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) planned to conduct an auction in March 2019. Researchers such as the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) expressed their concerns before the auction took place.

NOAA and NASA meteorological satellites are equipped with sensors called “ High Performance Micro Sounders (AMSU) ” that operate at a frequency of 23.6-24 GHz to observe water vapor. Researchers have pointed out the danger of interference between the frequency used by this sensor for water vapor observation and the 24 GHz band allocated as the 5G band, and when 5G operation begins, the data collection and transmission of meteorological satellites will be significant. Argues that it may be disturbed. However, the FCC rejected NOAA and NASA's claims as “no technical basis”, and the 24GHz auction was held as scheduled , and T-Mobile and AT & T won the license.

Pointing out that weather forecast will be affected if next generation communication standard `` 5G '' is put to practical use-GIGAZINE

by mohamed Hassan

Since then, research institutions and meteorological researchers have focused on limiting out-of-band emissions that affect nearby frequency bands. The smaller the out-of-band launches, the lower the risk of interfering with each other, even when the 5G and weather satellite frequency bands are close together.

From October 28, 2019, an international conference on 5G regulations and the future will be held in Sharm El Sheikh , Egypt, bringing together more than 3,000 stakeholders from countries around the world. The conference also discussed 5G out-of-band restrictions, and meteorologists were hoping for more restrictive restrictions.

At this meeting, the United States demanded out-of-band emissions to be below -22 dB , and European regulators and the World Meteorological Agency said they demanded more stringent limits below -55 dB. The consensus obtained at this meeting is that “the restriction of out-of-band launches will be tightened in two stages”, which will limit out-of-band launches to -33 dB or less until September 2027 and thereafter to -39 dB or less. It was decided.



There is a complicated voice from meteorologists about this agreement. Jordan Gerth, an American meteorologist, said, “We should be welcomed to agree on a threshold lower than the American claim, but we can't be sure there is no interference with weather data.” comment. Also, NOAA researcher Neil Jacobs believes that if the research team's research is correct, the accuracy of weather forecasts can fall back to the 1980s level by up to 30%. .

The European Medium-Term Forecast Center (ECMWF) also criticized the results of the international conference, and this agreement is insufficient to ensure that 5G applications do not interfere with weather observations and will have a significant impact on the science of climate change. I am concerned. “I'm worried and discouraged that the history of science succumbing to social pressure,” ECMWF said.

NOAA is also considering switching to another alternative observation method when the accuracy of weather forecasts deteriorates due to 5G. For example, by observing water vapor only on the Earth's oceans, it may be possible to avoid interference from 5G equipment installed on land. Another option is to develop an artificial intelligence approach to recover the weather data lost by 5G, and to find ways to maintain the accuracy of weather forecasts.

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