What is the 'Neven's Law' that predicts the hardware performance progress of the new era replacing 'Moore's Law'?



Mr Hartt Naven, director of the Quantum Artificial Intelligence Research Institute (QuAIL), a research facility that researches and develops quantum computers, announces 'Evolution of the processing power of quantum computers', 'Moore's law' It has been discussed as the 'Neven's Law' to replace '.'

Does Neven's Law Describe Quantum Computing's Rise? | Quanta Magazine

Neven's Law: why it might be too soon for a Moore's Law for quantum computers

'Quantum computer' is not a general application, but has a performance specialized in specific scientific research such as drug and material development, and a computer of a new age expected to accelerate the research speed in those fields. is.

You can read from the following article how quantum computers are different from conventional computers.

The 'Quantum Computers Explained' movie that shows how 100 million times faster quantum computers than conventional PCs work and break through the physical limits-GIGAZINE


Moore's law ' is a prediction on the progress of integrated circuits that 'the number of transistors in semiconductor integrated circuits doubles about every two years'. Moore's law accurately predicted the progress of integrated circuits from 1965 to about 2015, but quantum computers that operate based on completely different principles from ordinary computers are not applicable. Quantum computers were unclear to non-experts, including 'whether they really advanced'. From such background, Dr. Naven, a pioneer in quantum computer research, has announced the prediction of technological advances in quantum computers.

The announcement is, 'The processing speed of the quantum computer processor will grow' double exponentially '. Exponential is the law of increase of 2 (21), 4 (22), 8 (23), 16 (24), while double exponential is the law of increase like the following image The rate of increase differs from 4, 16, 256, 65536 when converted.

Recent developments in quantum computers are mainly attributable to the fact that the error rates of circuits used in quantum computers continue to decrease, and their anomalous growth rates are the result of projects carried out in the laboratory. According to the director of the neven, it was derived from

On the other hand, it is still unknown whether or not the law of the neven holds. There is a concern that quantum computers are still a developing research area, and as quantum processors become more sophisticated, the effects of small errors such as electrical noise generated in the system will increase.

By xray

The Conversation of the academic media 'The Moore's law has an impact on investment and development funds because the processing power of integrated circuits has continued to grow almost according to Moore's law for about 50 years from 1965 to around 2015. We continue to give it, and if the law of the neven will hold in the future, it can be one indicator to predict the future of quantum computers, but we do not know at this stage. '

in Hardware,   Science, Posted by darkhorse_log