Climate change in coffee reduces harvest volume · Fears that price will rise by 25% ~ 50% in future

ByMadame.furie

Currently, coffee is drinking 2 billion cups a day in the world in the world, but in the future due to climate change etc.There is a fear that it can not be drunk easily as it is nowIt has been pointed out. Although we can not manage the weather right now, research is under way to continue drinking coffee.

BBC - Future - Coffee in crisis: The bitter end of our favorite drink?
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150728-coffee-the-bitter-end-of-our-favourite-drink


Coffee beans, the raw material for coffee, can be taken from "Coffee (Coffea)". There are several kinds of coffee beans, but Arabica species accounts for more than 70% of the total, and Robusta species occupies most of the rest, so it can be said that the coffee is almost one of these two kinds. As a characteristic, it is known that arabica species are more fragrant and robusta species are more bitter. Arabica species are cultivated mainly in Latin America and Africa, and Robusta species mainly in Southeast Asia and Africa.

What is threatening this coffee now is various environmental problems that are thought to be caused by climate change. For example, in Mexico the rain fell violently with a rise in the temperature, unlike the "rain showers" so far. Coffee noodles have a flowering time of 48 hours, during which heavy rain will result in no harvest. Furthermore, due to hurricane attacks and landslides, the coffee plantation itself may even be buried in mud.

In Uganda, the temperature is higher than before and the degree of dryness has increased, so it seems that flowers may fall and beans may shrink as little as possible. In Central America, due to leaf rust, in 2013 the yield is reduced by 20%. As long-term data, it is reported that the harvest that was 500 kilograms per hectare in Tanzania in the 1960s has now fallen to 300 kg per hectare.

According to investigations by Christian Ban and colleagues, the land suitable for the cultivation of Arabica species may be reduced to half of the current by 2050. Especially, the environment deteriorated in Vietnam, India, Central America countries which have cultivated coffee from long ago. As a result, the price of coffee is expected to rise by 25%.

A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee - Springer
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1306-x


It is also conceivable that improving productivity may result in cheaper seeds of other plants, and at that time coffee farmers may stop coffee making, which may increase the coffee price by 50%, Mr. Ban I point out. Already, in Central America it is said that there is also a place to change the coffee plantation into a rubber plantation by giving up a break.

On the other hand, in the study by Ainhoa ​​Magrach et al., It is necessary to cultivate 2.2 million hectares of tropical rainforest in order to continue to make arabica species in the same way as before.

PLOS ONE: Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0133071


Of course, doing such things would destroy the ecosystem for coffee. So Mr. Magrach notes that the land that is suitable for growing coffee is coming along with the rise in temperature, and accepting even that the taste of coffee changes, it is impossible to make a plantation in another place It is possible to point out.

また、例えばロブスタ種の根にアラビカ種を接ぎ木して干ばつに強い雑種を作るということや、根本的な品種改良によってアラビカ種とロブスタ種のいいとこ取りをすることも考えられています。ただ、研究は進められているものの、いつ新種が使えるものになるかはわからないとのこと。