Simulation results of what would happen if China imposed a naval blockade on Taiwan
China has been conducting numerous military exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan since 2022. The Center for Strategic and
(PDF file)Lights Out? Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2025-07/250730_Cancian_Taiwan_Blockade.pdf
Wargaming the Next Crisis: A Chinese Blockade of Taiwan - YouTube
Lights Out? Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan
https://www.csis.org/analysis/lights-out-wargaming-chinese-blockade-taiwan
While a blockade of Taiwan by China is not inevitable, CSIS states that it is a possibility given China's rhetoric and military buildup. To that end, CSIS conducted 26 wargames, including 21 scenarios based on four possible responses from China and the Taiwan-US coalition, as well as five free play rounds to deepen understanding of the escalation of the situation.
In the wargame, players place pieces such as ships, transports, and aircraft on a map. They record the situation on a blackboard and decide what to do each turn, splitting into the Chinese side and the Allied side.
The results of the exercise concluded that in a 'low-intensity' scenario in which a Chinese military blockade would destroy Taiwan's power and infrastructure, the Taiwanese military would be able to buy time against the Chinese forces that had landed, but would be overwhelmed by the sheer quantity of Chinese military equipment. In this case, it would be difficult to send transport ships to Taiwan. On the other hand, if the United States adopted a 'Ukraine strategy' in which it provided material support but refrained from full military intervention, Taiwan would be able to secure supplies in many cases, even though the arrival of some transport ships would be hindered.
In a 'medium intensity' scenario, Chinese submarines and mines sunk transport ships, significantly reducing cargo arrival rates. The cost of dozens to hundreds of ships would have been necessary to provide substantial support.
In the 'High Intensity' scenario, which included full-scale combat, many gamers recalled the massive airlift during the Berlin Blockade of 1948-1949, exploring ways to avoid dangerous sea-based resupply and deliver supplies by air. However, because Taiwan had 10 times the population of Berlin at the time, even a large-scale airlift would only be able to meet about 2% of Taiwan's daily consumption.
The final results of the five free plays were 'low intensity' twice, 'medium intensity' once, and 'high intensity' twice.
The overall conclusion is that in any scenario, combat will result in casualties, with thousands of casualties expected even in a 'low intensity' scenario. In a 'high intensity' scenario, the United States could lose dozens of warships and hundreds of aircraft, while China is expected to suffer even greater losses.
Furthermore, a Chinese military blockade would severely damage Taiwan's power and industry, given its high reliance on imported energy, the CSIS report said.
Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser at the Department of Defense and National Security who led the investigation, said, 'Just as the Berlin Blockade led to the creation of NATO, a blockade of Taiwan risks inviting international criticism of China. A blockade would affect not just Taiwan and its neighbors, but every country on the planet. Not only would it cause economic disruption and strategic problems, but if the blockade escalated into war, the human costs would be enormous. This must be prevented. The question is, 'how do we prevent it?''
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